Strategies for Phase 2C
So you missed out on every one of the earlier Phases to get your child in the school you desire. Now, you are faced with trying to succeed in the highly stressful Phase 2C.
While it is true that Phase 2C is stressful because everyone is trying to get into the very popular schools, and that everyone should just stick to the very sensible rule of thumb of going for the nearest school to their homes that are unlikely to feature balloting, we are KiasuParents afterall. And KiasuParents don't go out without a fight, no matter how slim the chance.
But here is the stark fact. If you do decide to go for it, chances are high that you will be balloting, once again, during Phase 2C(S). Why?
It's because most other parents will think in the same way - as long as there is a chance to get into a "top" school, go for it. They have an infallible conviction that there is always their 2nd choice school that they can go for in Phase 2C(S).
As a result, these 2nd choice schools become the top choice for parents who were balloted out of Phase 2C (sometimes over 50 parents could be trying to get a single vacancy in Phase 2C!). So the whole cycle starts again.
Our advice to parents is that if we really have a second choice school that we are sure to get a place in Phase 2C, just go for it in Phase 2C. Resist the temptation of trying to get that elusive vacancy in one of the incredibly popular schools. In the best case, we will be feeling like we have won Toto, which, of course, feels great. But in most cases, we don't always win Toto, and we may end up with neither our 1st nor 2nd choice schools.
There are of course, cases where parents really have no choice but to try to get into the popular schools, because those are the nearest schools to them. Our advice would be that unless you are within 1km of these schools, don't try to join in the fray. You would be throwing away your valuable Phase 2C priority of getting your 2nd choice school.
If you are within 1km of that popular school, you might wish to contemplate this. While it is true that you will be in a balloting situation, it is also true that your odds are much better than someone who is more than 1km away.
For example, if a school has 50 places for Phase 2C and there are 100 applicants. If 45 of these applicants are within 1km and the rest between 1-2km, then effectively, 55 applicants will be vying for the last 5 seats, with odds of 1 in 11. The chance of success is less than 10%.
On the other hand if 55 of the applicants staying within 1km, then the 45 who stay beyond 1km will not even qualify for balloting. So 55 applicants will have to fight for 50 seats, with odds of 1 in 1.1. The chance of success is 91%!
So if you do stay within 1km of the school, it might be prudent to just go for that school if you really desire it. However, you must be prepared with your 2nd choice school that you may have to register in Phase 2CS.
Do the following:
- Select 2 schools as your 2nd and 3rd choices.
- The 2nd choice should be one that you will most likely be able to get your child in Phase 2C without balloting.
- The 3rd choice should be one that you will most likely be able to get your child in Phase 2C(S) without balloting.
- To do this, use www.onemap.sg
- Start up your browser and enter www.onemap.sg as the URL.
- Enter your home address's postal code in the box.
- Mouse over to the "Services" button. A dropdown list will appear. Move down to "School Query" and click.
- In the SchoolQuery popup box, click on the "Find schools near a building" button.
- Now, move the cursor over to the map and click on your home (which should already be highlighted and centred in the window).
- Both schools within 1km (marked as Red) and between 1-2km (marked as Blue) will be displayed.
- Note down each of these schools. Then refer to KiasuParents.com's P1 Registration History to check each school's balloting history. The schools that have mostly uncolored boxes in Phase 2C and 2C(S) in the past 5+ years will be the candidates for your 2nd and 3rd choice schools, respectively.
- Now you must monitor the take-up rate (TUR) for Phase 2C very closely. At the end of each day of the 3 day exercise, MOE will post the total number of registrations, so far, for each school. This number will be reflected as the APP rate or rate of applications in KiasuParents.com's P1 Registration History. Unfortunately, MOE does not provide finer granularity that would inform parents of how many of the applicants are within 1km, between 1-2km or beyond 2km. To find out, parents will have to call up the schools directly. Try not to do this too often, because it is really tiring for staff to keep manually updating parents in this mode, and tempers could be short. Ask nicely, and the staff will reciprocrate.
- You can also do some rough estimation yourself. Based on 2010's P1 registration data, we have found that generally:
- 75% of applicants would have registered on Day 1
- 14% of applicants on Day 2
- 11% of applicants on Day 3
- However, the above rates could be very different for some schools in the following ways:
- For some popular schools, parents could be holding back until the last minute to place their bets. This happened last year for Catholic High, where most of the applicants registered on the last day! However, this is quite rare.
- In most other cases, the traditional "2nd choice" schools are the ones that enjoyed the highest registration rates in Day 3, when parents gave up on their 1st choice schools and wisely went for the 2nd choice schools in Phase 2C.
- Schools also help parents staying further than 1km away and who registered in Days 1 or 2, by notifying them when the number of applicants who stay nearer to the school have exceeded the quota. This allows parents to quickly withdraw from the school and activate their 2nd choice school in Phase 2C. This accounts for the negative rates for some very popular schools during Day 3 or even Day 2.
- Both mommy and daddy should be prepared to take leave on the afternoon of the 3rd day. By noon, you should have decided on whether it is worthwhile to take the risk and register in that popular school, given the TUR in the previous 2 days. You have to determine if you can stomach the odds if you go for your 1st choice school. Otherwise, just go for your 2nd choice school.
- You can then go to the school to register. For schools that have moved on to online registration, you can actually stay home to do it. So hopefully, most schools will join the system by 2012.
- Those going for the 1st choice school are likely to have to ballot.
- If luck is not on your side, you will have to activate your 3rd choice school in Phase 2C(S).
We hope that the above steps can help to clarify a number of the questions we have received over the past month. Good luck to all parents!
The table below is 2010's applications for each school, broken down on day by day, so that parents can have a rough gauge of the percentage of applications for each school on each day.
Eg. for Admiralty, 82% of all applicants in Phase 2B applied in Day 1, 12% in Day 2, and 6% in Day 3.
| School | Day 1 % | Day 2 % | Day 3 % |
| Admiralty Primary School | 82% | 12% | 6% |
| Ahmad Ibrahim Primary School | 74% | 12% | 14% |
| Ai Tong School | 66% | 25% | 9% |
| Anchor Green Primary School | 75% | 15% | 10% |
| Anderson Primary School | 96% | 2% | 2% |
| Ang Mo Kio Primary School | 70% | 21% | 9% |
| Anglo-Chinese School (Junior) | 70% | 21% | 9% |
| Anglo-Chinese School (Primary) | 93% | 0% | 7% |
| Balestier Hill Primary School | 65% | 6% | 29% |
| Beacon Primary School | 81% | 10% | 8% |
| Bedok Green Primary School | 60% | 15% | 24% |
| Bedok West Primary School | 81% | 19% | 0% |
| Bendemeer Primary School | 64% | 18% | 18% |
| Blangah Rise Primary School | 63% | 13% | 25% |
| Boon Lay Garden Primary School | 69% | 18% | 13% |
| Bukit Panjang Primary School | 74% | 13% | 14% |
| Bukit Timah Primary School | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Bukit View Primary School | 65% | 13% | 21% |
| Canberra Primary School | 84% | 12% | 4% |
| Canossa Convent Primary School | 80% | 13% | 8% |
| Cantonment Primary School | 66% | 14% | 20% |
| Casuarina Primary School | 79% | 12% | 9% |
| Catholic High School | 29% | 17% | 53% |
| Cedar Primary School | 71% | 8% | 21% |
| Changkat Primary School | 74% | 15% | 11% |
| CHIJ (Katong) Primary | 62% | 16% | 22% |
| CHIJ (Kellock) | 60% | 11% | 28% |
| CHIJ Our Lady of Good Counsel | 60% | 20% | 20% |
| CHIJ Our Lady of the Nativity | 64% | 16% | 20% |
| CHIJ Our Lady Queen of Peace | 47% | 14% | 39% |
| CHIJ Primary (Toa Payoh) | 86% | 10% | 4% |
| CHIJ St. Nicholas Girls’ School | 69% | 10% | 21% |
| Chongfu School | 80% | 12% | 9% |
| Chongzheng Primary School | 86% | 8% | 7% |
| Chua Chu Kang Primary School | 62% | 18% | 21% |
| Clementi Primary School | 69% | 15% | 16% |
| Compassvale Primary School | 89% | 11% | 1% |
| Concord Primary School | 85% | 5% | 10% |
| Coral Primary School | 77% | 18% | 5% |
| Corporation Primary School | 84% | 10% | 6% |
| Da Qiao Primary School | 75% | 18% | 8% |
| Damai Primary School | 57% | 14% | 29% |
| Dazhong Primary School | 83% | 8% | 8% |
| De La Salle School | 74% | 19% | 7% |
| East Coast Primary School | 63% | 12% | 24% |
| East Spring Primary School | 71% | 21% | 8% |
| East View Primary School | 67% | 22% | 11% |
| Edgefield Primary School | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| Elias Park Primary School | 72% | 11% | 17% |
| Endeavour Primary School | 91% | 6% | 3% |
| Eunos Primary School | 83% | 5% | 13% |
| Evergreen Primary School | 83% | 9% | 9% |
| Fairfield Methodist School (Primary) | 137% | 9% | -46% |
| Farrer Park Primary School | 72% | 19% | 8% |
| Fengshan Primary School | 102% | 11% | -13% |
| Fernvale Primary School | 79% | 12% | 9% |
| First Toa Payoh Primary School | 74% | 12% | 15% |
| Fuchun Primary School | 90% | 13% | -3% |
| Fuhua Primary School | 56% | 12% | 32% |
| Gan Eng Seng Primary School | 69% | 12% | 19% |
| Geylang Methodist School (Primary) | 76% | 14% | 10% |
| Gongshang Primary School | 77% | 15% | 9% |
| Greendale Primary School | 71% | 27% | 3% |
| Greenridge Primary School | 81% | 9% | 10% |
| Greenwood Primary School | 73% | 23% | 4% |
| Griffiths Primary School | 89% | 5% | 5% |
| Guangyang Primary School | 78% | 0% | 22% |
| Haig Girls’ School | 74% | 9% | 17% |
| Henry Park Primary School | 67% | 10% | 22% |
| Holy Innocents’ Primary School | 89% | 5% | 6% |
| Hong Kah Primary School | 79% | 14% | 7% |
| Hong Wen School | 87% | 13% | 0% |
| Horizon Primary School | 75% | 14% | 12% |
| Hougang Primary School | 75% | 12% | 13% |
| Huamin Primary School | 60% | 21% | 19% |
| Innova Primary School | 84% | 17% | -1% |
| Jiemin Primary School | 90% | 10% | 0% |
| Jing Shan Primary School | 73% | 22% | 5% |
| Junyuan Primary School | 81% | 10% | 8% |
| Jurong Primary School | 83% | 16% | 2% |
| Jurong West Primary School | 79% | 12% | 8% |
| Juying Primary School | 76% | 16% | 8% |
| Keming Primary School | 87% | 15% | -2% |
| Kheng Cheng School | 67% | 16% | 18% |
| Kong Hwa School | 88% | 9% | 4% |
| Kranji Primary School | 59% | 24% | 18% |
| Kuo Chuan Presbyterian Primary School | 75% | 14% | 11% |
| Lakeside Primary School | 68% | 17% | 14% |
| Lianhua Primary School | 80% | 14% | 6% |
| Loyang Primary School | 70% | 7% | 22% |
| MacPherson Primary School | 67% | 4% | 30% |
| Maha Bodhi School | 87% | 12% | 1% |
| Maris Stella High School | 60% | 21% | 19% |
| Marsiling Primary School | 68% | 11% | 21% |
| Marymount Convent School | 46% | 16% | 38% |
| Mayflower Primary School | 55% | 27% | 18% |
| Mee Toh School | 74% | 15% | 11% |
| Meridian Primary School | 84% | 5% | 11% |
| Methodist Girls’ School (Primary) | 86% | 19% | -5% |
| Montfort Junior School | 63% | 19% | 18% |
| Nan Chiau Primary School | 74% | 17% | 9% |
| Nan Hua Primary School | 79% | 11% | 11% |
| Nanyang Primary School | 81% | 12% | 7% |
| Naval Base Primary School | 73% | 19% | 8% |
| New Town Primary School | 61% | 14% | 25% |
| Ngee Ann Primary School | 58% | 13% | 29% |
| North Spring Primary School | 80% | 14% | 7% |
| North View Primary School | 67% | 20% | 14% |
| North Vista Primary School | 75% | 12% | 12% |
| Northland Primary School | 79% | 15% | 6% |
| Opera Estate Primary School | 77% | 13% | 10% |
| Park View Primary School | 79% | 6% | 15% |
| Pasir Ris Primary School | 100% | 3% | -3% |
| Payal Lebar Methodist Girls’ School (Primary) | 89% | 9% | 2% |
| Pei Chun Public School | 73% | 16% | 10% |
| Pei Hwa Presbyterian Primary School | 82% | 6% | 12% |
| Pei Tong Primary School | 82% | 10% | 8% |
| Peiying Primary School | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| Pioneer Primary School | 66% | 16% | 18% |
| Poi Ching School | 78% | 18% | 4% |
| Princess Elizabeth Primary School | 88% | 12% | 0% |
| Punggol Primary School | 74% | 13% | 14% |
| Qiaonan Primary School | 81% | 19% | 0% |
| Qifa Primary School | 66% | 13% | 21% |
| Qihua Primary School | 71% | 12% | 17% |
| Queenstown Primary School | 43% | 17% | 39% |
| Radin Mas Primary School | 83% | 11% | 6% |
| Raffles Girls’ Primary School | 89% | 34% | -24% |
| Red Swastika School | 88% | 10% | 2% |
| River Valley Primary School | 104% | 14% | -18% |
| Rivervale Primary School | 90% | 9% | 1% |
| Rosyth School | 80% | 17% | 3% |
| Rulang Primary School | 76% | 14% | 10% |
| Sembawang Primary School | 72% | 15% | 13% |
| Seng Kang Primary School | 73% | 14% | 13% |
| Shuqun Primary School | 75% | 14% | 10% |
| Si Ling Primary School | 58% | 26% | 16% |
| Singapore Chinese Girls’ Primary School | 89% | 7% | 4% |
| South View Primary School | 87% | 15% | -2% |
| St Joseph’s Institution Junior | 74% | 13% | 12% |
| St. Andrew’s Junior School | 119% | -5% | -14% |
| St. Anthony’s Canossian Primary School | 62% | 13% | 25% |
| St. Anthony’s Primary School | 79% | 14% | 7% |
| St. Gabriel’s Primary School | 31% | 20% | 49% |
| St. Hilda’s Primary School | 84% | 13% | 3% |
| St. Margaret’s Primary School | 58% | 15% | 27% |
| St. Stephen’s School | 59% | 14% | 27% |
| Stamford Primary School | 59% | 17% | 24% |
| Tampines North Primary School | 74% | 16% | 10% |
| Tampines Primary School | 71% | 17% | 12% |
| Tanjong Katong Primary School | 64% | 11% | 25% |
| Tao Nan School | 65% | 21% | 14% |
| Teck Ghee Primary School | 79% | 11% | 10% |
| Teck Whye Primary School | 67% | 22% | 11% |
| Telok Kurau Primary School | 82% | 15% | 3% |
| Temasek Primary School | 109% | 16% | -26% |
| Townsville Primary School | 71% | 20% | 8% |
| Unity Primary School | 75% | 13% | 11% |
| Wellington Primary School | 72% | 16% | 12% |
| West Grove Primary School | 80% | 14% | 6% |
| West View Primary School | 77% | 13% | 10% |
| White Sands Primary School | 60% | 29% | 11% |
| Woodgrove Primary School | 72% | 7% | 22% |
| Woodlands Primary School | 71% | 16% | 13% |
| Woodlands Ring Primary School | 80% | 14% | 6% |
| Xinghua Primary School | 84% | 10% | 6% |
| Xingnan Primary School | 70% | 15% | 15% |
| Xinmin Primary School | 89% | 9% | 2% |
| Xishan Primary School | 81% | 9% | 11% |
| Yangzheng Primary School | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| Yew Tee Primary School | 82% | 10% | 8% |
| Yio Chu Kang Primary School | 77% | 17% | 7% |
| Yishun Primary School | 78% | 8% | 14% |
| Yu Neng Primary School | 76% | 10% | 14% |
| Yuhua Primary School | 84% | 7% | 10% |
| Yumin Primary School | 70% | 16% | 14% |
| Zhangde Primary School | 77% | 12% | 11% |
| Zhenghua Primary School | 72% | 14% | 14% |
| Zhonghua Primary School | 70% | 19% | 11% |
@icedtea
The problem is that you will need to show both IC during registration. When you and your husband have different address shown on your IC, the school will use the father's address for registration.
Please see MOE's reply to this matter in this forum post: http://www.kiasuparents.com/kiasu/forum/viewtopic.php?p=736812#p736812
Different address on parent's IC
My husband and I owned 2 properties and have different addresses on our IC. Can i used one address for 2B registration at my 1st school of choice & if 2B is unsuccessful, use the other address for 2C registration in the 2nd school of choice? Both addresses are not tenanted and we do intent stay depending on which school we manage to enrol our child in.
Staying within 1km
Hi,
My son will be registering next year. I have within 1km choice of St Hilda's, Poi Ching and Tampines Primary school. Preferably 1st choice is St Hilda's, however historical balloting seemed slim chance.
Anyone has an experience or enlightenment to share with me for considerations?
Thank you
I am staying within 1 Km
I am staying within 1 Km within TAo Nan, Ngee Ann and CHIJ..
CHIJ(KC) is out for us as do not wish my gal to attend convent school.
TNS is of course our first choice but should i just go for Ngee Ann? Would i still have a chance at TNS in 2C?
Anyone's got any report about Ngee Ann?
My main aim is school nearest to home
Phase 2C Supp
Hi Chiefkiasu,
Currently waiting for balloting in Innova(phase 2C)..Will there be chances of balloting in woodlands pri school for those below 1 km in phase 2C Supp..pls advise me..
thanks for tips.
thanks for tips.
Thank you for enlightening me
Dear Chief Kiasu,
Thank you for the answer. To further work on your example, for each Citizen with 2 balloting tickets, the chance is
2/180 x 50 (since 50 tickets will be drawn)= 55.5% chance
For each PR the chance is
1/180 x 50- 27.8%
However, after Y ticket is drawn, the denominator will be 2Y less (assuming citizen has been drawn) and has to be multiplied by (50-Y).
You can only calculate the
You can only calculate the probability when you are ALREADY in the situation. So this information is not useful if you are still deciding if you should get into the school, because the school will not tell you how many PRs there are applying for the school.
Eg. If 100 people are balloting for 50 seats, and 20 are PRs, then the total number of bids will be 80x2+20=180.
The probability that a SG citizen will be picked is therefore 160/180=0.89
The probability that a PR will be picked is 20/180=0.11
You can only calculate the
You can only calculate the probability when you are ALREADY in the situation.
Eg. If 100 people are balloting for 50 seats, and 20 are PRs, then the total number of bids will be 80x2+20=180.
The probability that a SG citizen will be picked is therefore 160/180=0.89
The probability that a PR will be picked is 20/180=0.11
Probability for PR
Dear ChiefKiasu,
Thank you for the informative article, I am sure you have spent a lot of effort to compile the data.
Being a PR, I am really interested to know what is the formula to calculate probability for PRs with only one ballot slip each.
Maybe some parents with good mathematical skills can enlighten me.
Thanks in advance!!!