Why I think psle 2013 cop for 2014 sec 1 intake will drop (Page 11)

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 Post subject: Re: Why I think psle 2013 cop for 2014 sec 1 intake will dro
PostPosted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 1:01 am 
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OrangeBelt
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PSLEguru wrote:
wrote a sec 1 survival guide- hope your dd and ds will find this useful :)

http://www.kiasuparents.com/kiasu/conte ... vival-tips


Good writing. My DD and I had a good laugh! :rotflmao:


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 Post subject: Re: Why I think psle 2013 cop for 2014 sec 1 intake will dro
PostPosted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 1:27 pm 
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KiasuNewbie
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so, given that the bell curve is slimmer and number of classes is smaller, which direction is the COP going to move?

My opinion: it depends on which side of the curve the school is in. The bell curve is slimmer and taller. The COPs are attracted to the center line of the bell curve. The highest T-score has dropped but the lowest one has increased. The COP for schools in the lower half (190 to 220) will likely to increase while the other half (220-250) will likely to decrease. Those elite schools' COP (>250) will drop.

By how much? The number of express student increased from 63% to 66%. This increase is about 5%. 5% of 30 (220-190) is 1.5. So, I guess the COP will move by a mean of 1.5 points in each direction. The closer the COP is at the side, the higher the probability that it will move. For example, COP of 220 may not move but COP of 250 may dropped by 3.

What about smaller number of classes? The effect is neutralized by smaller number of P6s. This year, there are 8000 lesser P6s. Since there are around 170 secondary schools, if each school has one class reduced, the number of spaces removed will be 6800. So, no effect.

Just a quick analysis. For further discussion.

My dd scored 234. Now deciding whether to put Tanjong Katong Girls (TKGS-236) or Secondary (TKSS-234) as first choice. Based on the above analysis, TKGS will probably lowered by 1 to 235, which my girl will likely not be selected. TKSS is pretty safe.


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 Post subject: Re: Why I think psle 2013 cop for 2014 sec 1 intake will dro
PostPosted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 2:04 pm 
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KiasuGrandMaster
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afatherof3 wrote:
so, given that the bell curve is slimmer and number of classes is smaller, which direction is the COP going to move?

My opinion: it depends on which side of the curve the school is in. The bell curve is slimmer and taller. The COPs are attracted to the center line of the bell curve. The highest T-score has dropped but the lowest one has increased. The COP for schools in the lower half (190 to 220) will likely to increase while the other half (220-250) will likely to decrease. Those elite schools' COP (>250) will drop.

By how much? The number of express student increased from 63% to 66%. This increase is about 5%. 5% of 30 (220-190) is 1.5. So, I guess the COP will move by a mean of 1.5 points in each direction. The closer the COP is at the side, the higher the probability that it will move. For example, COP of 220 may not move but COP of 250 may dropped by 3.

What about smaller number of classes? The effect is neutralized by smaller number of P6s. This year, there are 8000 lesser P6s. Since there are around 170 secondary schools, if each school has one class reduced, the number of spaces removed will be 6800. So, no effect.

Just a quick analysis. For further discussion.

My dd scored 234. Now deciding whether to put Tanjong Katong Girls (TKGS-236) or Secondary (TKSS-234) as first choice. Based on the above analysis, TKGS will probably lowered by 1 to 235, which my girl will likely not be selected. TKSS is pretty safe.


Agree. Similar to my prediction. :smile:

http://www.kiasuparents.com/kiasu/forum ... 0&start=60


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 Post subject: Re: Why I think psle 2013 cop for 2014 sec 1 intake will dro
PostPosted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 2:33 pm 
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KiasuGrandMaster
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PSLEguru wrote:
wrote a sec 1 survival guide- hope your dd and ds will find this useful :)

http://www.kiasuparents.com/kiasu/conte ... vival-tips

thank you, psleguru!

:cry: but, but, but i didn't choose to be an old lady!


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 Post subject: Re: Why I think psle 2013 cop for 2014 sec 1 intake will dro
PostPosted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 2:35 pm 
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BlueBelt
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for those who feel COP would drop, which year's COP do you think is indicative of this year's COP, if at all? 2010? 2011? I think this years COP will be discounted from 2012 cos it was the dragon year, but not sure if 2011/2010 would be quite accurate, or if COP will be even lower.


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 Post subject: Re: Why I think psle 2013 cop for 2014 sec 1 intake will dro
PostPosted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 2:35 pm 
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OrangeBelt
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Joined: Fri Oct 26, 2012 10:08 pm
Posts: 93
afatherof3 wrote:
so, given that the bell curve is slimmer and number of classes is smaller, which direction is the COP going to move?

My opinion: it depends on which side of the curve the school is in. The bell curve is slimmer and taller. The COPs are attracted to the center line of the bell curve. The highest T-score has dropped but the lowest one has increased. The COP for schools in the lower half (190 to 220) will likely to increase while the other half (220-250) will likely to decrease. Those elite schools' COP (>250) will drop.

By how much? The number of express student increased from 63% to 66%. This increase is about 5%. 5% of 30 (220-190) is 1.5. So, I guess the COP will move by a mean of 1.5 points in each direction. The closer the COP is at the side, the higher the probability that it will move. For example, COP of 220 may not move but COP of 250 may dropped by 3.

What about smaller number of classes? The effect is neutralized by smaller number of P6s. This year, there are 8000 lesser P6s. Since there are around 170 secondary schools, if each school has one class reduced, the number of spaces removed will be 6800. So, no effect.

Just a quick analysis. For further discussion.

My dd scored 234. Now deciding whether to put Tanjong Katong Girls (TKGS-236) or Secondary (TKSS-234) as first choice. Based on the above analysis, TKGS will probably lowered by 1 to 235, which my girl will likely not be selected. TKSS is pretty safe.


Oh dear if your analysis is accurate then my ds chance of getting into TKSS is low too. His score is 230 :(


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 Post subject: Re: Why I think psle 2013 cop for 2014 sec 1 intake will dro
PostPosted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 2:52 pm 
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KiasuGrandMaster
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lexis wrote:
for those who feel COP would drop, which year's COP do you think is indicative of this year's COP, if at all? 2010? 2011? I think this years COP will be discounted from 2012 cos it was the dragon year, but not sure if 2011/2010 would be quite accurate, or if COP will be even lower.


2010 PSLE was relatively easy compared to previous years. Hence the highest T score was lower. And COP for top tier IP schools dropped. But some other schools with lower COP actual saw slide increase in COP.

This year's papers seem to be even easier than 2010. Not surprisingly the highest T score and EESIS cutoff are also even lower, not just compared to last year, but also lower than 2010. That's why we should see an even bigger drop in COP for the top few schools. However, COP will not drop for all schools as easier papers has the effect of crowding in the middle.

This is just my observation and prediction, may not be correct of course.

http://www.kiasuparents.com/kiasu/forum ... 0&start=60


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 Post subject: Re: Why I think psle 2013 cop for 2014 sec 1 intake will dro
PostPosted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 2:54 pm 
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KiasuNewbie
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Wishace wrote:
Oh dear if your analysis is accurate then my ds chance of getting into TKSS is low too. His score is 230 :(


This is a game of chance. 230 is pretty close to 234. Based on the selection principle suggested by the forum, you should put your dream school at first choice and prepare the appeal letter. We will put TKGS as 1st choice even though we did not meet the mark.


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 Post subject: Re: Why I think psle 2013 cop for 2014 sec 1 intake will dro
PostPosted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 5:18 pm 
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KiasuGrandMaster
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We went to RI consultation session this afternoon. The staff said that RI's COP won't drop so much. Maybe only to 261-262.

I noticed that this year RI offered Confirmed Offer (CO) on GEPpers on Waiting List (WL). RI never did like that in the last few years. RI's WL is seldom converted into CO. By taking more GEPpers, RI can maintain high COP. It is really like a number game. They are beating the statistician's game that tries to converge the COP numbers.


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 Post subject: Re: Why I think psle 2013 cop for 2014 sec 1 intake will dro
PostPosted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 5:29 pm 
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KiasuGrandMaster
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wonderm wrote:
lexis wrote:
for those who feel COP would drop, which year's COP do you think is indicative of this year's COP, if at all? 2010? 2011? I think this years COP will be discounted from 2012 cos it was the dragon year, but not sure if 2011/2010 would be quite accurate, or if COP will be even lower.


2010 PSLE was relatively easy compared to previous years. Hence the highest T score was lower. And COP for top tier IP schools dropped. But some other schools with lower COP actual saw slide increase in COP.

This year's papers seem to be even easier than 2010. Not surprisingly the highest T score and EESIS cutoff are also even lower, not just compared to last year, but also lower than 2010. That's why we should see an even bigger drop in COP for the top few schools. However, COP will not drop for all schools as easier papers has the effect of crowding in the middle.

This is just my observation and prediction, may not be correct of course.

http://www.kiasuparents.com/kiasu/forum ... 0&start=60


Wonderm, good analysis.

You are right about 2010 being easy relatively ( esp maths and Sci). The highest score was 282 but the second highest was 279. Maybe it is a good idea to take 2010 COPs as closer to what this year's COP might be. With top schools having a slight drop to 2010 COPs and the mid range schools might be exactly the same.


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