We have updated the balloting risk for each school for the 2015 Primary One Registration Exercise. This is based on the historical applications and balloting events that happened in the schools for the last 9 years. The table also reflects the most popular schools in Singapore.
Balloting risk for each Phase is computed based on the weighted average of the number of applicants in the stage multiplied by the type of balloting event for that stage. The latest event (ie. 2014) has the highest weightage, followed by 2013, … and so on. The number is then built into an index ranging from 0.0 to 1.0, where 1.0 represents the school with the greatest balloting risk for the Phase and 0.0 means no risk of balloting at all in the Phase.
The chart is sorted according to the overall balloting risk, which is again weighted such that Phase 2C(S) has the highest weightage, then to Phase 2C, 2B, and finally 2A. Schools with no vacancies left for Phase 2C(S) are given the highest risk value of 1.0, and marked with a “-“.
We hope that parents will use this chart wisely in planning their strategy for choosing schools. Schools which are very high up the list are clearly out of reach for parents who can only apply in Phase 2C. If you still want to try for these schools, make sure you have an alternative school that you are comfortable with applying in Phase 2C(S), and check if the balloting risk for that alternative school in Phase 2C(S) is high. It is probably better to simply apply in the alternative school in Phase 2C instead of wasting your Phase 2C chance by gambling in one of the hot schools.