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2017 P1 Registration Phase 2A(2) Analysis and Predictions

Latest Update: 13 July 2017

Phase 2A(2) : 11-12 July 2017 (Announcements by 14 July 2017)

MOE has posted balloting information for Phase 2A(2).  Both Nanyang and Nan Hua will require balloting for children staying more than 2km from the schools.  All applicants staying within 2km are successfully registered.  Congratulations to parents who managed to get a school, and the best of luck for those going for balloting!

 

Update: 12 July 2017

Phase 2A(2) : 11-12 July 2017 (Announcements by 14 July 2017)

Registration for Phase 2A(2) has ended.  Both Nanyang and Nan Hua are the only 2 schools that were oversubscribed.  All that remains now is for the schools to announce who will need to ballot.

Both CHIJ SNGS and Red Swastika have a minor scare today, as they were left with only 1 spare seat.

We will be releasing our predictions and analysis of the upcoming Phase 2B very soon.  Stay tuned!

2017-P1-Reg-Phase-2A2-Analysis-2 

 

Update: 11 July 2017

After the first day of Phase 2A(2), we are seeing the situation being played out as we had expected.  Nanyang is oversubscribed by 10 places, while Nan Hua now has zero places left for Day 2.  Red Swastika has only 4 places left.

The big surprise is CHIJ SNGS, which only had 2 applicants today.  It does look like most of the old girls have joined the alumni and are already in through Phase 2A(1).  So the school might escape balloting in Phase 2A(2) once again this year.

We have listed all the schools with an application rate greater than 50% in the chart below.

2017-P1-Reg-Phase-2A2-Analysis-1

 

Update: 6 July 2017

Phase 2A(1) registration has just ended.  As expected, no school was oversubscribed.  However, a rather different picture emerges with regards to what might happen in Phase 2A(2).

Nanyang Primary remains to have the highest risk of over-subscription in Phase 2A(2), with a potential shortfall of 30 places.  Nanhua Primary is keeping pace, with a potential shortfall of 15 places.  Red Swastika has a sudden surge of 78 Phase 2A(1) applicants compared with last year’s 43 applicants, and has a potential shortfall of 3 places.  Finally, CHIJ SNGS has crept back into the danger zone with a strong Phase 2A(1) registration of 95 applicants compared with last year’s 88.  If the number of Phase 2A(2) applicants exceed just 7 this year, CHIJ SNGS will be oversubscribed.

On the flip side, good news for those eyeing for ACS Primary.  The number of applicants this year was only 82 compared to last year’s bumper crop of 119.  This puts the school outside of the danger zone with a comfortable buffer of 28 places.  Also, good news for parents going for Fairfield Methodist.  With only 62 registered for Phase 2A(1) compared with last year’s 73, the school now has a projected buffer of 13 places for Phase 2A(2).

The rest of the schools with rather small buffers are:

  • Gongshang (5)
  • Catholic High (7)
  • Ai Tong (9)

These are moderately in danger of oversubscription.

2017-P1-Reg-Phase-2A2-Prediction-1

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