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2017 P1 Registration Phase 2B Analysis and Predictions

Latest Update: 18 July 2017

Phase 2B: 17-18 July 2017 (Announcement by 21 July 2017)

Phase 2B has ended.  17 schools are oversubscribed, and 1 school, Nanyang Primary, barely escaped oversubscription with all its Phase 2B places taken up.

St. Hilda‘s is still the most oversubscribed school at 166%, followed by Methodist Girls’ (152%) and CHIJ Toa Payoh (146%).  CHIJ St Nicholas Girls‘ could not escape oversubscription this time.  Neither could ACS Primary and ACS Junior.

Good luck to all parents who might be headed for the ballet this week.  Remember you still have another chance in Phase 2C!



Update: 17 July 2017

After the first day of Phase 2B registration, 8 schools were oversubscribed, and 2 schools have no more vacancies left for Phase 2B.  We have listed all these schools in decreasing order of oversubscription in the chart below.

St. Hilda’s in Tampines is the most oversubscribed school, followed by Methodist Girls’ School.  Nanyang Primary has only 3 places left and CHIJ St. Nicholas Girls’ is left with 4.

ACS Primary and ACS Junior are left with a decent number of places, but we suspect several parents are holding back to see which school is less oversubscribed before committing to the school.  Tomorrow could be a nail biting experience for parents eyeing these ACS schools.



Update: 13 July 2017

The registration for Phase 2A(2) has ended with 2 schools: Nanyang and Nan Hua Primary, awaiting the announcement on balloting requirements.  Apart from these schools, we now have some clarity on the outlook for Phase 2B.

70 schools have already enrolled 50% or more of their students.  Leading the pack are Nanyang (93%), Nan Hua (85%), Rosyth (83%), Red Swastika (83%), Ai Tong (83%), CHIJ St Nicholas (80%), Catholic High (80%) and Fairfield Methodist (80%).

The chart below shows the current availability of vacancies for Phase 2B (barring the outcome of possible balloting in Phase 2A(2) and withdrawals), compared with the availability of vacancies and applicants at the same point in last year’s (2016) Primary One Registration Exercise.  The purpose is to predict the possible outcome in this year’s Phase 2B registration, assuming that demand for the places are similar to that of last year’s.

Schools with lesser places this year compared to last year are marked in red.  The Projected Buffer column shows the difference between this year’s Places and last year’s applicants.  Those schools which have lesser places than applicants are highlighted in yellow.  There are 16 of these schools, amongst which Methodist Girls’ has the largest shortfall (-29), followed by ACS Junior (-28), CHIJ Primary (-26), St. Hilda’s (-19), St. Joseph’s Institute Junior (-16), and CHIJ St. Nicholas (-11).  Parents have to be wary if they are attempting to try their luck at these schools for Phase 2B.

On the side, ACS Primary has a large projected buffer of 13 places this year, due to much lower take-up in Phases 1 and 2A.  It is possible that some of the demand for ACS Junior this year could be deflected to ACS Primary.  So ACS Primary might still end up being oversubscribed in Phase 2B despite its relatively big buffer.



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