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2017 P1 Registration Phase 2C Analysis and Predictions

Latest Update: 31 July 2017

Phase 2C: 26-28 July 2017 On-site registration, 25-27 July Online registration
(Announcement by 2 August 2017)

The schools’ balloting information is out.  Generally, the competition is much higher this year at Phase 2C.

Schools balloting information summary:

  • SC under 1km = 50
  • SC 1km-2km = 16
  • SC > 2km = 6
  • SCs only = 3
  • PRs under 1km = 10
  • PRs 1km-2km = 2
  • PRs > 2km = 1
Ballot criteria 2017 2016
SC under 1km 50 29
SC 1km-2km 16 23
SC > 2km 6 9
SCs only 3 2
PRs under 1km 10 11
PRs 1km-2km 2 2
PRs > 2km 1 1

For observers looking to do future P1 registration, the data shows that more parents are now shifting closer to their target schools in order to even have a chance to ballot.

 

Update: 28 July 2017

Phase 2C registration has just ended.  90 schools have completely filled their vacancies, with 88 schools oversubscribed.  Northland tops the chart at 392% oversubscription, followed by Nan Hua (362%), Rosyth (319%), Nan Chiau (282%), St. Hilda’s (247%), South View (233%) , and Sengkang Green (222%).

For parents who have succeeded in getting their children a place so far, congratulations!  To parents who may have to go for balloting next week, we wish you the best of luck.  And if you still turn up short, do not worry, as there is still Phase 2C(S) to look forward to.  Look at the chart below and you will see plenty of places left in many schools.

We will release our Phase 2C(S) analysis and predictions once MOE releases the balloting information.  Please stay tuned.

2017-P1-Reg-Phase-2C-Analysis-3

 

Update: 27 July 2017

At the end of second day of on-site Phase 2C registration, 70 schools are oversubscribed.  Northland continues to top the chart at 384% oversubscription, followed by Nan Hua (348%), Rosyth (316%), Nan Chiau (277%), South View (224%) , Sengkang Green (219%), and St. Hilda’s (218%).

Schools with less than 10 places left are: Compassvale (0), Jing Shan (2), Punggol (4), Raffles Girls’ (4), ACS Junior (6), Elias Park (7), River Valley (8), Casuarina (9), Woodlands (9), Xinmin (9), and Zhangde (9).

Not all is bad news.  For example, we are seeing some parents withdrawing their applications from heavily oversubscribed schools like Anderson Primary.  This puts less pressure on parents vying for a place in those schools.

 

Update: 26 July 2017

Day 1 of Phase 2C on-site registration is over.  Including the online registrations, 68 schools are oversubscribed, some by as much as 318%!

The table below shows the schools in descending order of the application rate (APP).  Northland is the most oversubscribed (318%, with a shortfall of 111 places), followed closely by Rosyth (280%), Nan Hua (272%),  Nan Chiau (250%), Sengkang Green (206%) and South View (203%).

If all of these registrants stay within 1km of the schools, then the application rate effectively represents the odds of getting a place in the school.  Eg. 300% means there are 3 registrants vying for every vacancy.  In cases where the number of applicants under 1km or 2km is less than the vacancies available, then the odds may even be worse.  Eg. If 90 applicants are vying for 30 seats, the APP rate is 300%.  But if amongst these applicants, 25 are staying within 2km, it means that 65 applicants who are staying beyond 2km will be vying for just 5 seats!

If your school is oversubscribed, it is paramount that you check with the school to make sure that

  1. You at least have a chance of balloting
  2. Your chance of balloting is not astronomically infeasible.

Don’t waste your Phase 2C chance.  Try to go for your 2nd or even 3rd choice schools if the risk is too high for your 1st choice.

Edit: Table is removed.  Data is now embedded in new chart above.

 

Update: 18 July 2017

At the end of Phase 2B, pending balloting results that may change the vacancies available at the 17 schools oversubscribed at Phase 2B, 90 schools have enrolled 50% or more of their vacancies.  5 schools, in fact, have enrolled 90% or more: Nanyang Primary (95%), Rosyth (92%), Ai Tong (92%), CHIJ St. Nicholas Girls’ (90%), Catholic High (90%) and Nan Hua Primary (90%).

The chart below shows the current availability of vacancies for Phase 2C (barring the outcome of possible balloting in Phase 2B and withdrawals), compared with the availability of vacancies and applicants at the same point in last year’s (2016) Primary One Registration Exercise.  The purpose is to predict the possible outcome in this year’s Phase 2C registration, assuming that demand for the places are similar to that of last year’s.

Schools with lesser places this year compared to last year are marked in red.  The Projected Buffer column shows the difference between this year’s Places and last year’s applicants.  Those schools which have lesser places than applicants are highlighted in yellow.  These represent schools with the highest risk of oversubscription in this year’s Phase 2C.

There are 82 of these schools.  Sengkang Green leads with a huge shortfall of -197, followed by Nan Chiau (-114), Northland (-109), Punggol Green (-93), St. Hilda’s (-78), South View (-77), and Rosyth (-62).  Unless you like to gamble, these are the schools which you should avoid especially if you do not stay within 1km!

2017-P1-Reg-Phase-2C-Prediction-1

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