Replying to this post because my cow baby has gone to bed and I couldn’t find anything else to do tonight. For the benefit of other anxious parents who are still not so sure of how the indicative AL scores came about – here’s a recap: https://www.moe.gov.sg/-/media/files/ne … 0C73CB8DB4

Pasting here for easy reference:
The indicative PSLE Score ranges for the individual schools were simulated using the 2020 P6 cohort’s PSLE results and school choices.

• MOE first simulated each student’s individual subject score in AL terms, based on their raw subject scores.
• Then, we added the AL scores for each PSLE subject to form a student’s total PSLE Score.

Using these simulated PSLE Scores and students’ school choices from 2020,

• MOE simulated their posting outcomes based on the new S1 Posting System and its tie-breakers (in the order of Citizenship, Choice order of Schools and Computerised Balloting).
• The indicative PSLE Score ranges for individual secondary schools were then generated based on the PSLE Scores of the first student and the last student who WOULD HAVE POSTED into the school UNDER THE SIMULATION.

As the 2020 PSLE cohort had their results in T-score terms, the PSLE Score ranges are indicative only, as they were simulated using the 2020 PSLE cohort results and students’ school choices in that same year.
The actual PSLE Score range for a school for a particular year is not pre-determined, and may vary from year to year, depending on the PSLE results and school choice patterns of each P6 cohort.

In short, it means students “admitted” based on the simulation may not be the actual students who went to the schools (ie sec 1 in 2021). It means the last student/students admitted to RGS (sec 1 2021) with actual t score cut off 261 may not be the same last student/students who got “admitted” with AL6 in their simulation. Same goes for all the other schools. Basically MOE did a “what if we sort them out this way” exercise. Thus all the assumptions of certain t score = certain AL are definitely not accurate.

Even if someone claims to have the correct formula for t score = AL conversion, we can never know who and how many did well or worst this year so all kinds of analysis are just meant to keep poor parents awake at night wondering which choices to put for their child’s future school, with no actual help. On top of that, we can never know what’s the choice ranking patterns this year’s cohort will make.

I do hope parents are discerning enough to make judgements for themselves and their children especially during this tight timeframe for the schools selections. We are here to help each other so let’s not have the blind leading the blind and take everyone on a wild goose chase.

Parents, have a good night rest. Most importantly, talk to your children about the schools and their thoughts on this exercise. These communications will help set the stage for your child’s transition into secondary school life, with u as their guiding light.

https://www.kiasuparents.com/kiasu/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2048486#p2048486