10/08/23

The results of Phase 2C is finally out.  A total of 85 schools are oversubscribed, with 1 school only oversubscribed in PRs but with spaces left for Singapore citizens (Opera Estate Primary).

Of these 85 schools, all have to ballot except for Canossa Convent Primary and Oasis Primary, and these schools have only places for Singapore Citizens within 2km.  So 83 schools are off to the balloting block.

1 school, Ngee Ann Primary, reached 100% take-up rate without requiring balloting!  Thanks to the heavens!

Let us first look at the schools which are oversubscribed this year while sitting it out last year:

• Jing Shan Primary.  This school actually has slightly less applicants than last year (62 vs 67), but I suppose more places were taken up in the earlier Phases.
• Canossa Convent Primary.  This school also has less applicants than last year (56 vs 60)
• Haig Girls’. This school also has less applicants than last year (108 vs 117)
• Queenstown Primary.  This school has more applicants than last year (123 vs 115)
• Angsana Primary.  This school has less applicants than last year (167 vs 171)
• North View Primary.  This school has less applicants than last year (95 vs 119)

And for those schools which are oversubscribed last year but NOT this year:

• Fengshan Primary (75 vs 95)
• Bukit Timah Primary (71 vs 81)
• St Margaret’s Primary (78 vs 122) (I think a lot of people missed this school)
• Lakeside Primary (112 vs 124)
• Ngee Ann Primary (122 vs 128)
• Punggol View Primary (51 vs 74)
• Waterway Primary (77 vs 107)
• Sembawang Primary (67 vs 122)
• Innova Primary (58 vs 86)
• Woodgrove Primary (99 vs 104)
• Woodlands Primary (87 vs 112)

While these schools still have places for Phase 2CS, they are very likely going to be oversubscribed many times over.  Please be careful!

Only Raffles Girls’ Primary require balloting now, even though its take-up rate was low on the 2nd Day of Phase 2C.  It went up from 72 to 130 applicants on the last Day!  Now it has to ballot, but fortunately only for citizens staying more than 2km away.

In general, the take up rate this year is more or less similar to last year, but I feel that the demand for places has dropped slightly by 10-20%.  Regardless, good luck to those who have to ballot for Phase 2C, and I will prepare the Phase 2CS worksheet next.

2/08/23

Here’s the results of the 2nd Day of Phase 2C.  Now, 69 schools are oversubscribed, with 2 schools reaching 100% exactly: Kuo Chuan Presbyterian Primary and White Sands Primary.  For parents bidding in these 2 schools, don’t celebrate too early, as there could be some more people coming in tomorrow.

Princess Elizabeth is now the leader with an oversubscription rate of 519%!  Here is the application rates of the leaders:

• Princess Elizabeth Primary 519%
• Northland Primary 443%
• Nan Hua Primary 403%
• South View Primary 308%
• Rosyth 302%
• St Hilda’s Primary 283%
• Nan Chiau Primary 254%
• Holy Innocent’s Primary 250%
• Rulang Primary 244%
• Temasek Primary 235%
• Poi Ching 233%
• Hong Wen 220%
• Bukit Panjang Primary 217%
• Gongshang Primary 214%

Only those with 200% and above APP rates are listed above.  These are the schools which will likely require balloting for those <1km.  Chances are very high that all those involved are really within 1km, so for Princess Elizabeth Primary, for example, you only have about a 20% chance of winning the ballot.  My suggestion is that you pull out now and go for another nearby school which requires little or no balloting in Phase 2C because they might get oversubscribed in Phase 2CS.

For schools which required balloting last year, but not yet this year, here’s our analysis:

The following schools might escape balloting this year:

• Feng Shan Primary has currently 59 applicants out of 93 places.
• Opera Estate Primary has currently 68 applicants out of 101 places.
• Bukit Timah Primary has currently 62 applicants out of 109 places. May require PR to ballot only.
• Raffles Girls’ Primary has currently 72 applicants out of 112 places.
• St Margaret’s Primary has currently 60 applicants out of 121 places.
• Ngee Ann Primary has currently 89 applicants out of 121 places.
• Punggol View Primary has currently 41 applicants out of 90 places.
• Waterway Primary has currently 53 applicants out of 120 places.
•  Woodlands Primary has currently 75 applicants out of 102 places.

You should seriously consider these schools as alternatives to your preferred, but heavily oversubscribed schools.  If you don’t choose them now, they will likely be oversubscribed in Phase 2CS and you may have to ballot again :/

1/08/23

The first day of Phase 2C is over.  47 schools are oversubscribed, with no school reaching exactly 100% (number of applicants = number of places available).

The schools with the highest oversubscription rates are:

• Northland Primary (409%)
• Princess Elizabeth Primary (404%)
• Nan Hua Primary (278%)
• South View Primary (273%)
• Rosyth (234%)
• St Hilda’s Primary (233%)
• Rulang (210%)
• Nan Chiau Primary (200%)

If you compare today’s results with last year’s Phase 2C take up rate (ie. the 2023-2022 column), you will find that most of the numbers are negative.  But it is still EARLY in Phase 2C.  Expect the numbers to ramp up significantly in the next 2 days.

31/07/23

Today is the day before the big rush – Phase 2C of the 2023 P1 Registration!

MOE has just released the numbers for the Phase.  We have checked the numbers, and find them generally accurate, but a number of them, especially in the more premier schools, have 1 or 2 places extra just before Phase 2C kicks in.  We do not know why, but it might be just a happy happenstance.

Here is the list of all those schools with more places:

• CHIJ OLQP (+1)
• Henry Park Primary (+1)
• Nanyang Primary (+1)
• Qifa Primary (+1)
• ACS Primary (+1)
• SJI Junior (+1)
• Meridian Primary (+1)
• Pasir Ris Primary (+2)
• Mee Toh (+1)
• Punggol Green Primary (+1)
• Anchor Green Primary (+1)
• Nan Chiau Primary (+2)
• Seng Kang Primary (+1)
• Rosyth (+1)
• Poi Ching (+1)
• Tampines Primary (+1)
• Pei Chun Public (+2)
• Huamin Primary (+1)

We have posted the main table that we will be using for Phase 2C.  Once again, the APP column represents the percentage of applicants over the number of places.  The TUR column shows the school’s take-up rate so far.  The schools with the highest TUR are Nanyang Primary and Tao Nan which has 89% of their places filled so far, but there are plenty of other schools already at 85% or more TUR.  These are the schools which will unfortunately be oversubscribed many times as Phase 2C progresses.  Then we present the number of places available for Phase 2C, along with the running numbers which will be updated at the end of each day.

The 2022 numbers for Phase 2C is presented next.  Schools which had required balloting are highlighted to give you a feel of which school might require balloting.

Good luck, and may you get what you want 🙂