2026 P1 Balloting Risk: An Early Look at the Data

P1 registration in Singapore is carried out in phases, and places at popular schools can sometimes go to ballot.

Here's how school balloting works: When applications exceed available vacancies in each registration phase, schools use the following "home-school distance" categories to prioritise admitting students that live nearer to the school:

Within 1 km
Between 1 and 2 km
Beyond 2 km

The Ministry of Education has stated that priority admission to a school will be given to children in this order:

Singapore Citizens (SC) living within 1km of the school.
SCs living between 1km and 2km of the school.
SCs living outside 2km of the school.
Permanent Residents (PR) living within 1km of the school.
PRs living between 1km and 2km of the school.
PRs living outside 2km of the school.

Below, we have updated our example scenario, to illustrate how registration works. This corresponds to information available on the Ministry of Education website. Do refer to their website for a fuller explanation.

Let's say a school has 70 places available in a phase.

There are 85 Singapore Citizen applicants and 10 Permanent Resident applicants.

The school considers applicants in this order:

Singapore Citizens living within 1km
Singapore Citizens living between 1km and 2km
Singapore Citizens living outside 2km
Permanent Residents (in order of proximity)

First, if there are 60 Singapore Citizens living within 1km, they will all be admitted.

This leaves 10 places.

Next, if there are 20 Singapore Citizens living between 1km and 2km, they will have to ballot, since there are only 10 places left.

The 10 children who succeed in the ballot will get a place.

The remaining Singapore Citizens living between 1km and 2km will not get a place in this phase. Singapore Citizens living outside 2km and all Permanent Residents will also not get a place, because all places have already been filled.

To help you plan ahead, KiasuParents has analysed actual registration data from 2023 to 2025, and put together a balloting risk indicator for each primary school.

Correction note (28 May 2026): An earlier version of this article featured examples that did not accurately reflect the priority order for P1 balloting. We have updated this to reflect MOE’s stated order of priority admission, where Singapore Citizens are considered by home-school distance before Permanent Residents are considered.

Key takeaways

P1 registration is carried out in phases (Phase 1 to Phase 3), prioritising children who have stronger ties with the school, as well as those living nearby.
In KiasuParents' school balloting analysis, the risk value goes from 0.00 to 1.00.
A risk value close to 1 means a school has a high chance of requiring balloting, even for those who live nearby. A value of 0 means no balloting in the last 3 years.

In this article

Jump to

P1 registration phases in Singapore
2026 P1 registration risk, and how it is calculated

P1 registration phases in Singapore

Not familiar with the process? Here's what you need to know: Phases 1 to 2C Supplementary are for Singapore Citizen and Permanent Resident children, while Phase 3 is for international students.

Phase 1

For children who have a sibling currently studying in the primary school.

Phase 2A

For a child studying in the MOE Kindergarten in the primary school, or:

Whose parent or sibling is a former student of the primary school
Whose parent is a member of the School Advisory or Management Committee
Whose parent is a staff member of the primary school

Phase 2B

For children whose parent:

Has joined the primary school as a parent volunteer not later than July 1 (in the year before P1 registration), and has given at least 40 hours of voluntary service to the school (by June 30 of the year of P1 registration)
Is a member endorsed by the church or clan connected with the primary school
Is endorsed as an active community leader

Phase 2C

For children who are not yet registered in a primary school.

Phase 2C Supplementary

For children who are still unregistered after Phase 2C.

Phase 3

For international students, subject to availability and MOE approval.

To find out more about each phase and the documents needed, read these guides:

2026 P1 registration risk, and how it is calculated by KiasuParents

In our analysis below, the balloting risk for each phase is shown.

This risk estimate is based on actual P1 registration data for the last three years (2023, 2024, and 2025).

The balloting risk value goes from 0.00 to 1.00.

It is calculated based on the type of "home-school distance" balloting the school had to undertake for each phase, averaged across three years, then rated on a scale of 0 to 1 relative to the most competitive school.

How to read this:

A value close to 1 means the school has a very strong chance of requiring balloting if one's home is <1km from the school.

A value of 0 means no balloting in the last 3 years, and generally safe to apply.

The colour coding shows which "home-school distance" group was affected by balloting:

Balloting at <1km

Balloting at 1–2km

Balloting at >2km

No balloting recorded

Note: Data is based on best-effort estimation with approximately 5% risk of inaccuracy. Cells marked with a dash in the Phase 2C(S) column indicate schools where all places were taken up by Phase 2C across all 3 years.

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Risk scores go from 0 (no balloting history) to 1 (balloting at <1km in all 3 years).

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179 schools

School	Area	2A	2B	2C	2C(S)
Anderson Primary	Ang Mo Kio	0	0	0.72	–
Ang Mo Kio Primary	Ang Mo Kio	0	0	0	0
CHIJ St Nicholas Girls'	Ang Mo Kio	0.67	1	1	–
Jing Shan Primary	Ang Mo Kio	0.78	0	0.42	0.67
Mayflower Primary	Ang Mo Kio	0	0	0	0
Teck Ghee Primary	Ang Mo Kio	0	0	0	0.45
Bedok Green Primary	Bedok	0	0	0	0
CHIJ (Katong) Primary	Bedok	0	0	0	0.38
Fengshan Primary	Bedok	0.19	0	0.44	0.95
Opera Estate Primary	Bedok	0	0	0.22	0.9
Red Swastika	Bedok	0.67	0.75	1	–
St Anthony's Canossian Primary	Bedok	0	0	0	0
St Stephen's	Bedok	0	0	0	0
Telok Kurau Primary	Bedok	0	0	0	0
Temasek Primary	Bedok	0.83	0	0.94	–
Yu Neng Primary	Bedok	0.22	0	1	–
Ai Tong	Bishan	0.44	1	1	–
Catholic High	Bishan	0.72	1	1	–
Kuo Chuan Presbyterian Primary	Bishan	0.22	0.75	0.94	–
Bukit View Primary	Bukit Batok	0	0	0	0.31
Dazhong Primary	Bukit Batok	0.17	0	0.33	0.88
Keming Primary	Bukit Batok	0	0	1	–
Lianhua Primary	Bukit Batok	0	0	0	0
Princess Elizabeth Primary	Bukit Batok	1	0.56	1	–
St Anthony's Primary	Bukit Batok	0	0.25	0.89	–
Alexandra Primary	Bukit Merah	0	0	0.83	–
Blangah Rise Primary	Bukit Merah	0	0	0	0
Cantonment Primary	Bukit Merah	0	0	0	0
CHIJ (Kellock)	Bukit Merah	0	0	0	0
Gan Eng Seng Primary	Bukit Merah	0	0	0	0
Radin Mas Primary	Bukit Merah	0	0	0.94	–
Zhangde Primary	Bukit Merah	0	0	0.11	0.86
Beacon Primary	Bukit Panjang	0	0	0	0
Bukit Panjang Primary	Bukit Panjang	0	0.28	0.94	–
CHIJ Our Lady Queen of Peace	Bukit Panjang	0	0	0	0
Greenridge Primary	Bukit Panjang	0	0	0	0
West Spring Primary	Bukit Panjang	0.25	0	0.61	0.67
West View Primary	Bukit Panjang	0	0	0	0
Zhenghua Primary	Bukit Panjang	0.17	0	0	0.52
Bukit Timah Primary	Bukit Timah	0	0	0.22	0.9
Henry Park Primary	Bukit Timah	0	0.67	1	–
Methodist Girls' School (Primary)	Bukit Timah	0	1	0.89	–
Nanyang Primary	Bukit Timah	0.67	1	1	–
Pei Hwa Presbyterian Primary	Bukit Timah	0.83	0.89	1	–
Raffles Girls' Primary	Bukit Timah	0	0	0.67	–
Anglo-Chinese School (Junior)	Central	0	1	0.83	–
River Valley Primary	Central	0	0	0.56	0.67
St Margaret's Primary	Central	0	0	0.31	0.71
Chua Chu Kang Primary	Choa Chu Kang	0	0	1	–
Concord Primary	Choa Chu Kang	0	0	0.17	0.86
De La Salle	Choa Chu Kang	0	0	0	0.57
South View Primary	Choa Chu Kang	0.83	0.92	1	–
Teck Whye Primary	Choa Chu Kang	0	0	0	0
Unity Primary	Choa Chu Kang	0	0	0	0
Yew Tee Primary	Choa Chu Kang	0	0	0	0
Clementi Primary	Clementi	0	0	0	0
Nan Hua Primary	Clementi	0.78	1	0.94	–
Pei Tong Primary	Clementi	0	0	0	0
Qifa Primary	Clementi	0	0	0.61	–
Canossa Catholic Primary	Geylang	0	0	0.25	0.57
Geylang Methodist School	Geylang	0	0	0.06	0.57
Haig Girls'	Geylang	0	0	0.17	0.57
Kong Hwa	Geylang	0	1	1	–
Maha Bodhi	Geylang	0	0.5	0.89	–
CHIJ Our Lady of the Nativity	Hougang	0	0	0.56	–
Holy Innocents' Primary	Hougang	0.44	1	1	–
Hougang Primary	Hougang	0	0	0.97	–
Montfort Junior	Hougang	0	0	0	0
Paya Lebar Methodist Girls'	Hougang	0	0.22	0.89	–
Punggol Primary	Hougang	0.17	0	0.97	–
Xinghua Primary	Hougang	0	0	0	0
Xinmin Primary	Hougang	0.22	0	1	–
Yio Chu Kang Primary	Hougang	0	0	0	0.14
Fuhua Primary	Jurong East	0	0	0	0
Jurong Primary	Jurong East	0	0	0	0.24
Yuhua Primary	Jurong East	0	0	0	0
Boon Lay Garden Primary	Jurong West	0	0	0	0
Corporation Primary	Jurong West	0	0	0	0
Frontier Primary	Jurong West	0.83	0.25	0.94	–
Jurong West Primary	Jurong West	0.39	0	0.33	0.95
Lakeside Primary	Jurong West	0	0	0	0.76
Rulang Primary	Jurong West	0.72	1	1	–
Shuqun Primary	Jurong West	0.67	0	1	–
West Grove Primary	Jurong West	0	0	0	0
Westwood Primary	Jurong West	0.28	0	1	–
Xingnan Primary	Jurong West	0	0	0	0
Bendemeer Primary	Kallang	0	0	0	0
Farrer Park Primary	Kallang	0	0	0	0
Hong Wen	Kallang	0	0	1	–
Ngee Ann Primary	Marine Parade	0	0	0.17	0.52
Tanjong Katong Primary	Marine Parade	0.22	0	0.83	–
Tao Nan	Marine Parade	0.44	1	1	–
Anglo-Chinese School (Primary)	Novena	0	1	0.89	–
Singapore Chinese Girls' Primary	Novena	0.44	0.67	1	–
St Joseph's Institution Junior	Novena	0	0.81	0.72	–
Casuarina Primary	Pasir Ris	0	0	0	0.24
Elias Park Primary	Pasir Ris	0.28	0	1	–
Meridian Primary	Pasir Ris	0	0	0	0
Park View Primary	Pasir Ris	0	0	0	0.12
Pasir Ris Primary	Pasir Ris	0.42	0.31	1	–
White Sands Primary	Pasir Ris	0	0	0.22	0.62
Edgefield Primary	Punggol	0	0	0	0
Greendale Primary	Punggol	0	0	0	0
Horizon Primary	Punggol	0.67	0	1	–
Mee Toh	Punggol	0	0	1	–
Northshore Primary	Punggol	0	0	0.67	0.67
Oasis Primary	Punggol	0	0	0.42	0.9
Punggol Cove Primary	Punggol	0	0	0	0.14
Punggol Green Primary	Punggol	1	0	1	–
Punggol View Primary	Punggol	0	0	0	0.52
Valour Primary	Punggol	0.33	0	1	–
Waterway Primary	Punggol	0.33	0	0.5	0.67
Fairfield Methodist Primary	Queenstown	0.44	1	1	–
New Town Primary	Queenstown	0	0	0	0
Queenstown Primary	Queenstown	0	0	0.33	0.88
Canberra Primary	Sembawang	0	0	0.89	–
Endeavour Primary	Sembawang	0	0	0	0
Northoaks Primary	Sembawang	0	0	0	0
Sembawang Primary	Sembawang	0	0	0.61	0.9
Wellington Primary	Sembawang	0.56	0.25	1	–
Anchor Green Primary	Seng Kang	0	0	0	0
Compassvale Primary	Seng Kang	0	0	1	–
Fern Green Primary	Seng Kang	0	0	0.33	0.62
Fernvale Primary	Seng Kang	0	0	0	0.48
Nan Chiau Primary	Seng Kang	0	1	1	–
North Spring Primary	Seng Kang	0	0	0	0
North Vista Primary	Seng Kang	0	0	0	0
Palm View Primary	Seng Kang	0	0	0	0.24
Rivervale Primary	Seng Kang	0	0	1	–
Seng Kang Primary	Seng Kang	0	0	0	0
Sengkang Green Primary	Seng Kang	1	0	1	–
Springdale Primary	Seng Kang	0	0	0	0.86
CHIJ Our Lady of Good Counsel	Serangoon	0	0	0	0.07
Rosyth	Serangoon	0.78	1	1	–
St Gabriel's Primary	Serangoon	0	0	0	0.62
Yangzheng Primary	Serangoon	0.78	0	0.94	–
Zhonghua Primary	Serangoon	0	0	0	0
Angsana Primary	Tampines	0.67	0	1	–
Changkat Primary	Tampines	0	0	0	0
Chongzheng Primary	Tampines	0	0	0.86	–
East Spring Primary	Tampines	0	0	0	0
Gongshang Primary	Tampines	1	0	1	–
Junyuan Primary	Tampines	0.28	0	0.44	0.95
Poi Ching	Tampines	0	0.28	1	–
St Hilda's Primary	Tampines	0.44	1	1	–
Tampines North Primary	Tampines	0	0	0	0.71
Tampines Primary	Tampines	0	0	0.11	0.86
Yumin Primary	Tampines	0	0	0	0
Pioneer Primary	Tengah	0	0	0	0
Cedar Primary	Toa Payoh	0	0	0	0.19
CHIJ Primary (Toa Payoh)	Toa Payoh	0.22	1	0.94	–
First Toa Payoh Primary	Toa Payoh	0	0	0	0
Kheng Cheng	Toa Payoh	0	0	0.11	0.79
Maris Stella High	Toa Payoh	0	0.89	1	–
Marymount Convent	Toa Payoh	0	0	0	0
Pei Chun Public	Toa Payoh	0.22	1	1	–
St Andrew's Junior	Toa Payoh	0	0	0.89	–
Admiralty Primary	Woodlands	0	0.44	1	–
Evergreen Primary	Woodlands	0	0	0	0.24
Fuchun Primary	Woodlands	0	0	0	0
Greenwood Primary	Woodlands	0	0	0	0.17
Innova Primary	Woodlands	0	0	0	0
Marsiling Primary	Woodlands	0	0	0	0.19
Qihua Primary	Woodlands	0	0	0	0
Riverside Primary	Woodlands	0.75	0	1	–
Si Ling Primary	Woodlands	0	0	0	0
Woodgrove Primary	Woodlands	0	0	0	0.26
Woodlands Primary	Woodlands	0	0	0	0.29
Woodlands Ring Primary	Woodlands	0	0	0	0
Ahmad Ibrahim Primary	Yishun	0	0	0	0
Chongfu Primary	Yishun	0.22	1	1	–
Huamin Primary	Yishun	0.94	0	1	–
Jiemin Primary	Yishun	0	0	0	0
Naval Base Primary	Yishun	0.89	0	0.78	–
North View Primary	Yishun	0.42	0	1	–
Northland Primary	Yishun	0.22	0.58	1	–
Peiying Primary	Yishun	0	0	0	0.69
Xishan Primary	Yishun	0	0	0	0.81
Yishun Primary	Yishun	0	0	0	0.4

Balloting at <1kmBalloting at 1–2kmBalloting at >2kmNo balloting recorded

Risk values range from 0.00 (no balloting) to 1.00 (balloting required in <1km every year). Based on actual P1 registration data for 2023, 2024, and 2025, averaged and normalised. – in 2C(S) means all places were filled by Phase 2C across all 3 years. Data has approximately 5% risk of inaccuracy.

Source: KiasuParents, based on MOE data. Updated 2026.