This week, we look at the schools in my area, which is Geylang.
We added the application rates for Phase 2A(1) + Phase 2A(2) simulating Phase 2A.
This is the number of people that applied for the phases.
We subtract 20 places from Phase 2A.
We then divided the application rate by the resulting number of places.
ie. intensity = application rate/number of places
We repeated the same process for the last 5 years.
Finally, we sort the results according to the school with the highest application rate in 2021.
Surprisingly, none of the schools here show any sign of requiring balloting in our simulated Phase 2A at all. This is good!
The usual suspects are Kong Hwa and Maha Bodhi, which would have required balloting only in 2018, which is for Dragon kids. Other than that, their take-up rates range from 70% to 81% mostly. So I would say that it is most likely both schools will escape balloting this year in Phase 2A.
The take up rate of the rest of the schools range from 11% all the way to 40%, so parents in Geylang should heave a sigh of relief with a Phase 2A free of balloting.