Oversubscription in Phase 2C of the P1 registration Exercise for 2021 Intake

Submitted by Advertiser KiasuParent

12 Aug 2020

Balloting results is finally out today.  Apparently there is another day’s worth of online subscription aka. “online form” which we didn’t expect to be anything important since this year’s registration is all online, and boy, were we wrong!

A total of 100 (out of 186) schools were oversubscribed, with most requiring balloting and a few cut-offs.  These are highlighted in the table below.  Many of those schools required balloting for Singaporeans within 1km of the schools.

Princess Elizabeth Primary is the most oversubscribed at 595%.  It has blown past the consistent leader South View Primary which was lowered to 535% as some parents wisely withdrew from the crazy competition.  The schools below list schools oversubscribed by 300% and more:

  • Princess Elizabeth Primary (595%)
  • South View Primary (535%)
  • Nan Hua Primary (523%)
  • Rosyth (470%)
  • Northland Primary (439%)
  • Gongshang Primary (433%)
  • Nanyang Primary (390%)
  • Temasek Primary (379%)
  • Rulang Primary (370%)
  • Tao Nan (357%)
  • Radin Mas Primary (326%)
  • Pei Chun Public (324%)
  • Chongfu Primary (324%)
  • Ai Tong (320%)
  • Sengkang Green Primary (319%)
  • Nan Chiau Primary (313%)
  • Frontier (309%)
  • Pei Hwa Presbyterian Primary (300%)

Nearly all of these schools have no increase in their cohort this year.  It’s as if the Ministry is intentionally letting them go into balloting and taking care of those unlucky ones who got out-balloted in the final Phase 2C(S), since the remaining schools have large increases in their cohorts this year.  Perhaps this is smart since the competition for good schools will always be there, but it does make the earlier stages a lot more competitive as many parents would want to try their luck knowing that they will still have some chance down the road.

For those going for the balloting, best of luck!  Otherwise, let us continue in the next Phase 2C(S), which is also the last Phase where citizens and PRs have some autonomy before the Ministry steps in to make the decision.

5 Aug 2020

Today is the FINAL day of Phase 2C.  85 schools were oversubscribed and will not participate in the final Phase 2C(S).   Please look at the table at the bottom of this post for details.

Most schools followed last year’s in-take in terms of over subscription.  Some schools such as Fengshan Primary and Opera Estate Primary in Bedok escaped balloting but has only 1 place left for Phase 2C(S)!  A small group of parents have withdrawn from applying to some schools, which are noted by a decrease from Day 2 to Day 3, eg. Bukit Panjang Primary, which went from 89 to 87 applicants.  But, these are still too little to prevent the schools from being oversubscribed.

The following are schools with have been oversubscribed by at least 300%:

  • South View Primary (550%)
  • Nan Hua Primary (523%)
  • Rosyth (450%)
  • Northland Primary (431%)
  • Gongshang Primary (420%)
  • Temasek Primary (389%)
  • Princess Elizabeth Primary (368%)
  • Tao Nan (357%)
  • Rulang Primary (345%)
  • Radin Mas Primary (336%)
  • Pei Chun Public (324%)
  • Nanyang Primary (320%)
  • Sengkang Green Primary (314%)
  • St Hilda’s Primary (314%)
  • Chongfu Primary (307%)
  • Nan Chiau Primary (301%)
  • Frontier Primary (300%)

South View Primary is undoubtedly the hottest school in this year’s Phase 2C registration.  Most of the other schools are Tier-1 schools like Nan Hua Primary and Rosyth but it is refreshing to see a “neighborhood” school get this type of endorsement.  MOE seems to be making good progress in their every school a good school mantra.

What remains is the information on balloting.  But you can be sure that every school highlighted in pink will NO LONGER have any more vacancies for Phase 2C(S)!

4 Aug 2020

Today is the 2nd day of Phase 2C.  Thankfully, MOE has managed to update the numbers before 11pm :).

However, 71 schools have reached capacity and will most likely need to ballot or is cut off.  Also, a number of schools have reached demand over 4 times the available spaces in the schools!  The following schools are those that have been oversubscribed by at least 300%:

  • South View Primary (454%)
  • Nan Hua Primary (450%)
  • Rosyth (410%)
  • Northland Primary (404%)
  • Gongshang Primary (385%)
  • Temasek Primary (354%)
  • Tao Nan (333%)
  • Rulang Primary (325%)
  • Pei Chun Public (310%)

Southview Primary is continuing to dominate the situation, but the older Tier-1 schools like Nanhua Primary and Rosyth are still in very high demand.

Of interest is the 2020-2019 column in the table below.  It shows the difference between this year’s applicants versus last year’s.  A negative value means the uptake is lower this year compared to last year.  A positive value means the opposite, and that the demand will be higher this year.  For example, Temasek Primary in Bedok has 44 more applicants this year than last year, with no increase in cohort size.  That is very competitive indeed!

Tomorrow is the final day of Phase 2C registration.  Apparently, many families are betting on getting their kids into the supposedly excellent schools, thinking that there is still Phase 2C(S) to fall back on should they fail to secure a place in Phase 2C.  However, remember that there is STILL balloting in Phase 2C(S)!  It might be better to go for your 2nd choice now in Phase 2C instead of going through balloting in Phase 2C(S).

3 Aug 2020

Today is the first day of Phase 2C.  A number of schools have been oversubscribed already, even though there are 2 more days to the registration.

The following schools have been oversubscribed by over 200%.  They are listed in decreasing order:

  • South View Primary (285%)
  • Rosyth (260%)
  • Northland Primary (253%)
  • Rulang Primary (245%)
  • Gongshang Primary (235%)
  • Princess Elizabeth Primary (224%)
  • Nan Hua Primary (214%)

These schools are on dangerous territory because if most applicants are within 1km of the school, it would mean they will all have to ballot for a place in the school, so the over subscription rate would apply!

Other than Rosyth and Nanhua Primary, the traditionally high response to the tier-1 schools have been rather muted so far.  For example, CHIJ St Nicholas’ Girls Primary is still open with a couple of places left, though not for long, I’m afraid.

The table has been updated with Day 1’s information.  It is good to see schools such as Hua Min Primary in Yishun receiving an increase in cohort of 70 vacancies so it might be able to escape balloting in Phase 2C this year.

We will continue to update the table as MOE updates the results tomorrow (at 11pm?!) and Wednesday.

30 July 2020

Phase 2C is almost about to begin!  It starts next Monday to Wednesday.  This is the practically free-for-all phase in this year’s P1 Registration Exercise, and based on the situation so far, it is likely to be a very competitive stage.  The intent of this post is to highlight the REAL difficulty of getting your child into some schools, so that you go in with your eyes wide open instead of just going for the school nearest to you and hoping for the best.

In the table below, we have placed last year’s (2019) intake for Phase 2C, along with this year’s (2020) remaining Vacancies.  Schools which had to ballot in last year’s Phase 2C are highlighted.  We just want to show you what to expect, come registration day.  Of course the outcome might be different, but based on our monitoring (over 10 years) so far, the numbers are generally predictable.

                  The Learning Lab      Eye Level                         

For example in the first group of Ang Mo Kio schools, Anderson Primary was oversubscribed last year with 88 students.  This year, it has only 38 vacancies left.  Chance of over subscription this year is pretty high.  CHIJ St Nicholas Girls’ is even worst.  There were 44 subscribers last year and this year, only 20 vacancies are available.  Teck Ghee Primary is better off this year, though.  It has 30 additional places added to its Cohort this year, so it might be able to stay available if the demand remains the same at 86.

If you wish to have a stress-free Exercise, our advice is for you to go for schools in your area that do NOT require balloting in Phase 2C.  Note that some of these schools are very likely to require balloting in the next and final Phase 2C(Supplementary).  So why not just get your child in by this Phase instead of going for another nail-biting Phase?

We will be continuously monitoring the Exercise, so stay tuned!

Fri 31/07/2020