(Updated 19 July 2008) We have done further analysis on the 2007 Primary One registration process to provide greater insight into the competitive situation for getting a place in each school.  This time, we look at the cumulative Take-Up Rate (TUR) after each Phase, ie. the total number of students registered in each school at the end of each Phase.  The idea is to see whether we can find some correlation between TUR and the possibility of a school going into a ballot situation in Phase 2C.  This can help parents to plan for contigencies if the average TUR after each Phase exceed certain thresholds.

The average cumulative TUR (AC-TUR) is computed by averaging the cumulative TUR of each of 3 Phases in the Primary 1 Registration exercise: Phases 1, 2A and 2B.  A high value of the AC-TUR indicates that a lot of places are taken up during the early Phases.  This would mean that the number of vacancies left for Phases 2C would be limited, thereby increasing the possibility of balloting in Phase 2C.

The Take-Up Rate data has been merged with the Balloting History data for easier reference.  We hope you will find our little investigation useful in your search for the most suitable school for your little darlings.

The table below highlights the most interesting part of our findings:

• If AC-TUR > 55%, balloting in Phase 2C is within the hot zone of less than 2km.
• If AC-TUR > 50%, there is a very high chance of balloting in Phase 2C.

Note that even if AC-TUR is < 50%, there could still be balloting in Phase 2C for some schools.  The indicator is only meant as a “stop-loss” measure, ie. if AC-TUR is > 55% for your favorite school, you should seriously consider your backup options if you are staying more than 2km away from that school.