Tampines Phase 2A Projections
Submitted by Chief Kiasu
We now look at Tampines, a district with 11 schools. It is a large growing district, one of the early downtown areas in the east of Singapore. The school with the largest cohort is St Hilda’s Primary, with 270 places.
- We added the application rates for Phase 2A(1) + Phase 2A(2) simulating Phase 2A.
This is the number of people that applied for the phases. - We subtract 20 places from Phase 2A.
- We then divided the application rate by the resulting number of places.
ie. intensity = application rate/number of places - We repeated the same process for the last 5 years.
- Finally, we sort the results according to the school with the highest application rate in 2021.
The first thing to note is the curious case of Junyuan Primary, with the strange number of -10.5 in 2018. This is an anomaly not because of our computation, but because in 2018, Junyuan actually has only 18 places left over for Phase 2A(2), which is below the 20 places we subtracted. So yes, it would have required balloting that year.
Gongshang Primary leads the pack, bursting to a 233% oversubscription rate in our simulation. The only time it didn’t require any balloting was in 2019, but with all the changes this year to P1 registration this year, it will most likely require balloting this year.
The interest in Chongzheng Primary has been quietly growing over the last 2 years, and it has gone up to 152% last year. It has a small cohort of 180 places, so unless its cohort increases, most likely the trend will require it to ballot this year.
St Hilda’s Primary, the venerable favorite amongst most residents there, has a downtrend in popularity over the recent years. But still, it will require balloting this year, although it is likely the balloting will be mild.
As for Junyuan Primary, other than the tremendous interest in the school in 2018, the trend has been dropping and it was only 55% full in 2021. So most likely, parents should be free of any balloting this year for the school in Phase 2A.
The same applies to all the other schools in Tampines. No balloting required in Phase 2A. The highest take up rate was experienced by Yumin Primary in 2017 (61%) and the lowest was by East Spring Primary last year where it has no take up at all.
