Toa Payoh Phase 2A Projections
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This week, we will look at Singapore’s grand old dame: Toa Payoh. This district is one of earliest ever created in Singapore, and comprise of 8 old but highly respectable schools. We will use the same criteria to predict the outcome of the coming Phase 2A of P1 Registration.
- We added the application rates for Phase 2A(1) + Phase 2A(2) simulating Phase 2A.
This is the number of people that applied for the phases. - We subtract 20 places from Phase 2A.
- We then divided the application rate by the resulting number of places.
ie. intensity = application rate/number of places - We repeated the same process for the last 5 years.
- Finally, we sort the results according to the school with the highest application rate in 2021.
Among all the school, Pei Chun Public is quietly leading in terms of popularity. Even with the district-leading 300 vacancies, it was consistently oversubscribed since 2018, between 5% to 31%. The only time it wasn’t oversubscribed in our simulation is 2017, where it had a 88% take up rate in Phase 2A. I believe it will be oversubscribed this year, unless MOE kindly increase its cohort.
CHIJ Primary (Toa Payoh) does not appear to require balloting in Phase 2A, but its take-up rate is uncomfortably high, going from 63% in 2018 to 80% in 2020. One reason is for its relatively small cohort size of 210 vacancies.
There are 2 schools vying as the 3rd most popular school in Toa Payoh. Maris Stella High was consistently higher than St Andrew’s Junior but its Phase 2A take-up rate fell to just 62% last year. Both schools are unlikely to require balloting this year.
The same applies to the rest of the schools in Toa Payoh. Take-up rates go from 4% (First Toa Payoh Primary in 2017) to 42% (Kheng Cheng in 2021).