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Yishun Phase 2A Projection


We finally come to the last of our series on the 2022 Phase 2A Projections for Primary One Registration this year.

Today, we look at Yishun, which is a mature township with 1o schools.  Cohort-size-wise, Chongfu Primary leads the pack with 300 places.

  • We added the application rates for Phase 2A(1) + Phase 2A(2) simulating Phase 2A.
    This is the number of people that applied for the phases.
  • We subtract 20 places from Phase 2A.
  • We then divided the application rate by the resulting number of places.
    ie. intensity = application rate/number of places
  • We repeated the same process for the last 5 years.
  • Finally, we sort the results according to the school with the highest application rate in 2021.

Northland Primary leads the pack, and went into slight over-subscriptions in 2021 and 2018.  There is a slight chance that it might require balloting this year, with all the changes to Phase 2A.

Huamin Primary has a pretty high take-up rate of 99% last year, but most of its other years are between 31% and 51%.  It has never been oversubscribed yet, and with a bit of luck, I don’t think it will this year either.  But you should definitely be careful if you are registering for Phase 2A this year in the school.

Chongfu Primary is another school that is highly suspect.  It is a popular school and its Phase 2A take-up rate has been creeping up to 93% last year.  But it has never required balloting in the last 5 years for Phase 2A, so I hope it won’t this year.

As for the rest of the schools in Yishun, they should be safe from balloting in Phase 2A this year.  The highest projected Phase 2A take-up rate is exhibited by Naval Base Primary last year (65%) and the lowest is 5% in Ahmad Ibrahim Primary back in 2019.

Good luck to everyone involved in the Primary One registration this year!

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