(a) For a child whose parent or sibling has studied in the primary school of choice
(b) For a child whose parent is a staff member of the primary school of choice
Announcement of Results:
By Thursday, 16 July 2015
Updated 14 July 2015: Analysis
At the close of this year’s Phase 2A(2), we see 6 schools oversubscribed, with 2 more schools narrowly escaping oversubscription.
Henry Park is the most oversubscribed (42 for 23 places), followed by Ai Tong (49 for 36 places), Nan Hua (43 for 37 places), Catholic High (32 for 30 places), Nanyang (58 for 55 places) and Red Swastika (40 for 38 places).
Yu Neng and Rulang came within a whisker of being over-subscribed.
Hence the good news is that there are no big surprises, other than the following slightly brow-raising outcomes:
- Yu Neng’s take up for Phase 2A(2) this year is muted (51 for 53 places) compared with last year’s applications (62 for 59 places).
- Red Swastika’s take up this year is actually 8 lower than last year’s Phase 2A(2) (48 for 59), but its Phase 2A(1) take up rate was 59, compared to last year’s 35. So, parents who are alumni and hoping to get into Red Swastika in future should note that they should try to get into the school’s Alumni association if they want to avoid balloting in Phase 2A.
- Catholic High’s take up in Phase 2A(1) this year was 2 less than in 2014, but its Phase 2A(2) take up rate shot up to 32 compared to last year’s 24. It would appear that for Catholic High, there are many applicants who only qualify for Phase 2A(2) by virtue of sibling affiliation rather than the parents’ alumni status.
In terms of the overall take up rate, as shown on the table below, the top 9 schools have less than 20% of places left for Phases 2B and 2C. Schools which are oversubscribed in Phase 2A will have at most 40 places left over for these 2 Phases.
We wish the best of luck for those who may have to ballot in Phase 2A(2)!
Updated 10 July 2015: Predictions
We have seen how the historical data can allow us to predict reasonably accurately the situation at this year’s Phase 2A(1).
Applying the same principles, by comparing the number of places remaining for Phase 2A(2) this year against last year’s actual demand, we find that as many as 8 schools may be oversubscribed in Phase 2A(2) this year, with another 10 schools teetering with less than 10 places left to meet the demand.
At first glance, it would appear that schools such as Henry Park, Nan Hua, Ai Tong and Nanyang would not be able to escape oversubscription.
However, many parents who would have been in Phase 2A(2) may have already applied in the earlier Phase 2A(1) by joining the schools’ alumni. Hopefully, this could actually bring down the pressure on this year’s demand in 2A(2).
To test the above conjecture, assuming that some parents who might have been in Phase 2A(2) have upgraded themselves to 2A(1), we calculated the change in the number applicants in 2A(1) between 2014 and 2015. What we found is interesting.
All the schools at the top of the list increased in the applications for 2A(1), with the exception of Catholic High where the applications actually dropped by 2. At MGS, the applications at 2A(1) is exactly the same as last year’s. Tao Nan has the highest increase for 2A(1), almost doubling last year’s applications going from 37 up to 70! This would be food for thought for alumni planning to register at Tao Nan in the coming years.
Assuming that the total pool of parents applying for the whole of Phase 2A remains unchanged, even if we account for the parents who had moved from 2A(2) up to 2A(1), the following schools still run a deficit:
Nan Hua (-17)
Henry Park (-13)
Yu Neng (-6)
These are the four schools which are VERY likely to be oversubscribed should demand this year at 2A(2) is similar to last year’s.
The other schools that come close to a shortfall are:
Ai Tong (+1)
Catholic High (+4)
Methodhist Girls (+9)
All in all, it is a good idea for parents aiming for schools in the list below to arm themselves with alternative plans should they fail to get into these schools by Phase 2A(2).