Phase 2C: (Updated 29 July 2016)
For all children who are eligible for Primary One in the following year and are not yet registered in a primary school.
Analysis: (29 July 2016)
Phase 2C has ended, with 79 schools having completely filled up their available vacancies for the cohort, 77 of which are oversubscribed by as little as 1 place, to as many as 164 places. For some parents in these oversubscribed schools who may face balloting, Phase 2C will only come to an end next Wednesday.
Analysis: (28 July 2016)
After 2 days of the Phase 2C registration exercise, 50 schools have filled up all their seats, with 46 schools oversubscribed by as little as one to as much as 157 seats.
Northland Primary has surpassed Rulang as the most oversubscribed school (263%), with 147 applicants for only 56 places. However, it is Sengkang Green that has the highest number of insufficient places, increasing from 121 to 157 missing places. Nan Chiau has also increased its application rate in Day 2, from 230% to 247%. Given that the schools are now actively stopping parents who have no chance of even balloting from registering, it is likely that all those who are already registered are staying within 1km of the schools. So the competition will be very high.
Analysis: (27 July 2016)
After just Day 1 of Phase 2C, a total of 33 schools are oversubscribed, and 1 school (St Andrew’s Junior) has completely filled up its vacancies.
Rulang is the most oversubscribed school, with almost 2.5 applicants for each vacancy. In raw numbers, however, it is Sengkang Green that has the highest number of insufficient places (121), with 254 going for just 133 seats.
The other hot school in Seng Kang is Nan Chiau, with 168 applicants going for 73 seats.
Prediction: (21 July 2016)
Some parents are concerned that too many parents coming in to register on the last day may throw off their calculations. So we went ahead to compute the application rates in last year’s (2015) Phase 2C so that parents have some idea what to expect on Day 3 for the school of their interest.
The table below shows the 2015 day-by-day application rates for each school, relative to the final day, which would be 100% of all those who registered for Phase 2C.
Most schools will see a steady increase from Day 1 to the last Day. There are exceptions to this:
- Schools which are used by parents as a backup may see their application rates decrease on a daily basis. For example, Anderson dropped 14% between the first and last day of Phase 2C.
- Traditionally very popular schools such as ACS Primary may see very high application rates on the first Day, and then dropping towards the last Day as parents who do not have a chance in the school pull out to go to other schools.
On the average, schools will see about 76% of applicants by the first Day, and 88% by the second Day. However, as you can see, different schools have varying application patterns. The factors likely include the number of places left for Phase 2C, the popularity of the school, the number of eligible parents within 1km of the school, and the number of schools near each other. Most parents within 1km of popular schools will register on the 1st Day, with those staying >2km coming in only on the last Day when they think the odds are good enough for them to try. If there are too many applicants already staying within 1km, then those staying outside of 2km will not come in at all.
Prediction: (20 July 2016)
Phase 2C is upon us, and next Wednesday to Friday will be nail-biting for many young parents. We have mapped the remaining places of each school (which may be changed after the Phase 2B ballot this Friday) against the Phase 2C demand for places in each school last year (2015). This allows us to identify the schools at the greatest risk of oversubscription, should demand remain unchanged this year.
The table below is sorted based on the level of shortfall in places. (Edit 27 July: We have resorted the table according to the alphabetical order of the school name to make it easier for parents to find their school of interest).
Sengkang Green has the unenviable position of having the highest shortfall in places. With only 4 years of history, its take-up rate in Phase 2C has doubled every year. While the trend has probably reached a plateau, it is still likely to remain very hot this year.
Some of the schools which lost 30 of their total vacancies this year may also see a spike in the intensity of competition in Phase 2C. Schools like Chua Chu Kang, Tampines, Qifa, etc.
Do monitor the statistics carefully during each day of Phase 2C and prepare at least 3 schools as your options. If the competition is too great for your top choice, it may be wiser to fall back to your 2nd or even 3rd choice, than to go through another round of anxiety in Phase 2C(S).
We will be updating this article at the end of each Day of Phase 2C with our analysis, so please bookmark this article.
ANNOUNCEMENT OF RESULTS:
By Wednesday, 3 August 2016
Registration is conducted at the primary school that you wish your child to be admitted into. The hours of registration are from 8.00 am to 11.00 am and from 2.30 pm to 4.30 pm on each scheduled registration day. Parent is to submit the registration form and required documents at the school of choice.
Alternatively, parents can authorise a person to register their child on their behalf. An original letter of authorisation is required from the parent.
ONLINE REGISTRATION FOR PRIMARY SCHOOLS
The Primary One Internet System (P1-IS) serves as a channel to facilitate the registration of children during Phase 2C and Phase 2C Supplementary.
Parents who register online will need to produce the original of each required documents to the school the child is successfully registered when requested by the school or upon reporting to the school.
The online registration period starts from 9.00 am on 26 July 2016 to 4.30 pm on 28 July 2016.
Singapore Citizens (SCs) will be given absolute priority over Singapore Permanent Residents (PRs) when balloting is necessary in a specific phase. SCs and PRs will continue to be eligible for the same phases, and all applicants will be admitted if the total number of applications in any phase does not exceed the number of vacancies. However, if the number of applications exceeds the number of vacancies in a specific phase, SCs will be admitted first ahead of PRs, before home-school distance is considered.
Other useful links:
Primary Schools Balloting History
2016 P1 Registration Oversubscription Risk
2016 Phase 1 Analysis
2016 Phase 2A(1) Analysis
2016 Phase 2A(2) Analysis
2016 Phase 2B Analysis
2016 Phase 2C Analysis
2016 Phase 2C(S) Analysis
Analysis: (28 July 2016)
After 2 days of the Phase 2C registration exercise, 50