P1 Registration (2012) – Phase 2A(1)
toa) For a child whose parent is a former student of the school and who has joined the alumni association as a member not later than 30 Jun 2010
b) For a child whose parent is a member of the School Advisory / Management Committee
Announcement of Results:
Thursday 7 July 2011
Details: Click here
Results: Click here
Post mortem: Click here
2011 Phase 1 results are out! We have compiled the results in descending order of the Take Up Rate (TUR) so far, along with ballot risk in Phases 2B and 2C.
The Phase 1 TUR is of particular interest because it reflects the confidence level that parents have in the school to want to send another of the children to the same school. An increase compared with the historical and 2010 performance indicates strong and consistent support from parents, while a decrease in both indicators tells the reverse story.
Greenwood Primary leads the pack, but it is Rosyth that draws our attention. A resounding 56% of the places have been taken up, with a high 9% increase over the historical average. It is safe to say that thanks to its great performance in PSLE last year, Rosyth will most likely feature ballots within 1km for Phase 2C.
Endeavour has also done remarkably well, with a 37% increase on its historical average. Definitely not bad for a 3 year old school. And so have Beacon and Innova, which are also new schools.
Bukit Panjang’s stock has dropped 7% over the historical average, although it has done marginally better compared to last year. Gongshang has worsened (-8% over historical average, and -12% compared with last year).
The most severe drop is Compassvale, losing 20% on the historical average and 16% compared to last year.
The Ballot Risk column is based on a statistical analysis of historical data. It is computed through a weighted average of actual ballot situations happening between 2006 and 2010, ie. if a school had a ballot at <1km last year, it increases the risk more significantly than if it happened 5 years ago. It is by no means a guaranteed measure. The risk ranges from 0.0 to 1.0, where 0.0 represents very low risk of balloting or cut-off at the given Phase, while 1.0 represents a very high risk of balloting or cut-off. The Color coding provides an approximation of the distance at which the balloting could appear. The Ballot risk does NOT take into account the increase or decrease of the TUR compared with the historical average. You have to assess for yourself how the changes this year may affect the actual situation, which is why we have published all 3 figures.
School | TUR | Difference vs | Ballot Risk | |||
Historical | 2010 | 2B | 2C | |||
Ang Mo Kio | Anderson Primary | 46% | 3% | 3% | 0.00 | 0.80 |
Ang Mo Kio | Jing Shan Primary | 33% | 6% | 7% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Ang Mo Kio | Townsville Primary | 32% | -1% | -2% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Ang Mo Kio | CHIJ St Nicholas Girls’ | 32% | -2% | -2% | 0.91 | 1.00 |
Ang Mo Kio | Ang Mo Kio Primary | 31% | -4% | -12% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Ang Mo Kio | Mayflower Primary | 29% | 0% | -2% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Ang Mo Kio | Teck Ghee Primary | 26% | -1% | -1% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Ang Mo Kio | Da Qiao Primary | 15% | -5% | -12% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bedok | Temasek Primary | 51% | 4% | 12% | 0.07 | 1.00 |
Bedok | Red Swastika | 49% | 2% | 5% | 0.07 | 1.00 |
Bedok | Fengshan Primary | 49% | 7% | 0% | 0.00 | 0.38 |
Bedok | Yu Neng Primary | 44% | -3% | -11% | 0.00 | 0.96 |
Bedok | Telok Kurau Primary | 42% | -4% | -3% | 0.00 | 0.49 |
Bedok | Bedok Green Primary | 33% | 1% | 2% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bedok | St Stephen’s | 25% | 2% | 7% | 0.07 | 0.36 |
Bedok | St Anthony’s Canossian Primary | 21% | -3% | -4% | 0.00 | 0.02 |
Bedok | Opera Estate Primary | 20% | 1% | 1% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bedok | CHIJ (Katong) Primary | 19% | -3% | 0% | 0.07 | 0.18 |
Bedok | Damai Primary | 16% | -3% | 2% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bedok | East Coast Primary | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bedok | Bedok West Primary | 7% | -2% | -1% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bishan | Ai Tong | 44% | -1% | -1% | 0.80 | 1.00 |
Bishan | Kuo Chuan Presbyterian Primary | 33% | -7% | -7% | 0.00 | 0.67 |
Bishan | Catholic High | 30% | 0% | -8% | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Bishan | Guangyang Primary | 11% | 0% | -3% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bukit Batok | Princess Elizabeth Primary | 55% | 7% | -6% | 0.00 | 1.00 |
Bukit Batok | Keming Primary | 39% | -5% | -7% | 0.00 | 0.87 |
Bukit Batok | St Anthony’s Primary | 32% | -12% | -3% | 0.02 | 1.00 |
Bukit Batok | Bukit View Primary | 32% | 3% | 6% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bukit Batok | Lianhua Primary | 29% | -2% | -3% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bukit Batok | Dazhong Primary | 24% | -2% | 10% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bukit Batok | Hong Kah Primary | 11% | -2% | -7% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bukit Merah | Zhangde Primary | 40% | 4% | 0% | 0.00 | 0.56 |
Bukit Merah | Gan Eng Seng Primary | 38% | 8% | 8% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bukit Merah | Radin Mas Primary | 34% | -8% | -7% | 0.00 | 0.87 |
Bukit Merah | CHIJ (Kellock) | 22% | -3% | 2% | 0.00 | 0.31 |
Bukit Merah | Blangah Rise Primary | 16% | 1% | -6% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bukit Merah | Cantonment Primary | 9% | 9% | 9% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bukit Panjang | Beacon Primary | 48% | 36% | 23% | 0.00 | 0.60 |
Bukit Panjang | Greenridge Primary | 47% | -1% | 4% | 0.00 | 0.60 |
Bukit Panjang | Bukit Panjang Primary | 46% | -7% | 2% | 0.00 | 0.93 |
Bukit Panjang | Zhenghua Primary | 36% | -5% | -7% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bukit Panjang | West View Primary | 27% | -5% | -1% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bukit Panjang | CHIJ Our Lady Queen of Peace | 26% | 5% | 6% | 0.00 | 0.36 |
Bukit Timah | Pei Hwa Presbyterian Primary | 53% | 9% | 1% | 0.20 | 0.82 |
Bukit Timah | Nanyang Primary | 52% | 3% | 6% | 0.18 | 1.00 |
Bukit Timah | Henry Park Primary | 47% | -2% | 7% | 0.02 | 0.89 |
Bukit Timah | Raffles Girls’ Primary | 31% | 0% | 1% | 0.00 | 0.58 |
Bukit Timah | Methodist Girls’ School (Primary) | 30% | -2% | -3% | 0.60 | 0.91 |
Bukit Timah | Bukit Timah Primary | 22% | -5% | -4% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Central | River Valley Primary | 33% | -4% | -11% | 0.00 | 0.67 |
Central | Anglo-Chinese School (Junior) | 25% | -4% | -3% | 0.33 | 0.78 |
Central | St Margaret’s Primary | 20% | -1% | -4% | 0.00 | 0.27 |
Central | Stamford Primary | 19% | 1% | -4% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Choa Chu Kang | South View Primary | 54% | 7% | 2% | 0.49 | 1.00 |
Choa Chu Kang | Unity Primary | 44% | -6% | 3% | 0.00 | 0.87 |
Choa Chu Kang | Concord Primary | 41% | -5% | -4% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Choa Chu Kang | De La Salle | 40% | -3% | -1% | 0.20 | 1.00 |
Choa Chu Kang | Yew Tee Primary | 38% | -11% | -7% | 0.00 | 0.84 |
Choa Chu Kang | Chua Chu Kang Primary | 37% | -3% | -2% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Choa Chu Kang | Kranji Primary | 34% | 4% | 6% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Choa Chu Kang | Teck Whye Primary | 19% | -6% | -1% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Clementi | Nan Hua Primary | 45% | 3% | 3% | 0.18 | 1.00 |
Clementi | Qifa Primary | 36% | 6% | -4% | 0.00 | 0.11 |
Clementi | Clementi Primary | 33% | -7% | -11% | 0.00 | 0.62 |
Clementi | Pei Tong Primary | 31% | 10% | 10% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Geylang | Kong Hwa | 48% | 3% | 7% | 0.40 | 0.91 |
Geylang | Geylang Methodist School | 41% | 3% | 6% | 0.00 | 0.49 |
Geylang | Maha Bodhi | 38% | -5% | -7% | 0.00 | 0.96 |
Geylang | Haig Girls’ | 23% | 2% | 1% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Geylang | Eunos Primary | 23% | -5% | -6% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Geylang | Canossa Convent Primary | 20% | 5% | 7% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Geylang | MacPherson Primary | 16% | -1% | -3% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Hougang | Xinmin Primary | 50% | 1% | 0% | 0.00 | 0.98 |
Hougang | Hougang Primary | 44% | -3% | -1% | 0.00 | 1.00 |
Hougang | Holy Innocents’ Primary | 41% | -2% | 1% | 0.22 | 0.91 |
Hougang | Punggol Primary | 40% | 2% | 2% | 0.00 | 0.02 |
Hougang | Yio Chu Kang Primary | 28% | 1% | -4% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Hougang | Xinghua Primary | 24% | -5% | 0% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Hougang | Paya Lebar Methodist Girls’ | 24% | -6% | -1% | 0.27 | 0.73 |
Hougang | CHIJ Our Lady of the Nativity | 22% | 0% | 5% | 0.00 | 0.47 |
Hougang | Montfort Junior | 15% | 0% | -2% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Jurong East | Jurong Primary | 41% | -4% | -4% | 0.00 | 0.69 |
Jurong East | Fuhua Primary | 37% | 3% | 0% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Jurong East | Yuhua Primary | 28% | -2% | 0% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Jurong West | Rulang Primary | 51% | 5% | 7% | 0.20 | 1.00 |
Jurong West | Shuqun Primary | 47% | 7% | 6% | 0.00 | 0.78 |
Jurong West | West Grove Primary | 41% | -5% | -6% | 0.33 | 1.00 |
Jurong West | Pioneer Primary | 40% | -3% | 0% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Jurong West | Lakeside Primary | 40% | 0% | -5% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Jurong West | Xingnan Primary | 38% | 1% | 5% | 0.00 | 0.18 |
Jurong West | Jurong West Primary | 36% | -11% | -2% | 0.00 | 1.00 |
Jurong West | Juying Primary | 34% | 5% | 1% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Jurong West | Boon Lay Garden Primary | 30% | 0% | -2% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Jurong West | Corporation Primary | 14% | -7% | -8% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Jurong West | Frontier Primary | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Kallang | Hong Wen | 37% | -1% | 5% | 0.00 | 0.89 |
Kallang | Bendemeer Primary | 26% | -11% | -5% | 0.00 | 0.07 |
Kallang | Farrer Park Primary | 11% | -4% | -3% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Marine Parade | Tao Nan | 51% | 4% | 8% | 0.71 | 1.00 |
Marine Parade | Tanjong Katong Primary | 41% | 9% | 1% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Marine Parade | Ngee Ann Primary | 37% | 2% | 2% | 0.00 | 0.13 |
Novena | St Joseph’s Institution Junior | 32% | 4% | 9% | 0.33 | 0.67 |
Novena | Anglo-Chinese School (Primary) | 26% | -1% | 3% | 0.73 | 0.91 |
Novena | Singapore Chinese Girls’ Primary | 26% | -4% | -2% | 0.00 | 0.87 |
Novena | Balestier Hill Primary | 13% | -1% | -2% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Pasir Ris | Pasir Ris Primary | 52% | 2% | 4% | 0.00 | 0.93 |
Pasir Ris | White Sands Primary | 47% | -4% | 8% | 0.00 | 0.87 |
Pasir Ris | Casuarina Primary | 44% | 8% | 16% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Pasir Ris | Elias Park Primary | 43% | 0% | 6% | 0.00 | 0.27 |
Pasir Ris | Meridien Primary | 32% | -5% | 2% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Pasir Ris | Park View Primary | 32% | -3% | 3% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Pasir Ris | Coral Primary | 22% | -6% | 3% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Pasir Ris | Loyang Primary | 15% | -3% | -4% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Punggol | Edgefield Primary | 49% | 15% | 19% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Punggol | Mee Toh | 42% | 0% | -1% | 0.00 | 1.00 |
Punggol | Greendale Primary | 36% | 25% | 10% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Punggol | Horizon | 15% | 15% | 12% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Queenstown | Fairfield Methodist Primary | 41% | -2% | 5% | 0.13 | 0.91 |
Queenstown | New Town Primary | 28% | 4% | 2% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Queenstown | Queenstown Primary | 26% | -3% | -10% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sembawang | Endeavour Primary | 52% | 37% | 12% | 0.00 | 0.42 |
Sembawang | Canberra Primary | 48% | 0% | 5% | 0.00 | 1.00 |
Sembawang | Wellington Primary | 31% | -4% | -5% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sembawang | Sembawang Primary | 24% | -10% | -8% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Seng Kang | Rivervale Primary | 45% | -8% | 1% | 0.00 | 1.00 |
Seng Kang | Nan Chiau Primary | 41% | -7% | -2% | 0.44 | 1.00 |
Seng Kang | Fernvale Primary | 33% | 13% | 16% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Seng Kang | Anchor Green Primary | 33% | 21% | 3% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Seng Kang | Seng Kang Primary | 32% | -4% | -3% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Seng Kang | Compassvale Primary | 30% | -20% | -16% | 0.00 | 0.93 |
Seng Kang | North Vista Primary | 26% | 15% | -4% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Seng Kang | North Spring Primary | 26% | -9% | -7% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Serangoon | Rosyth | 56% | 9% | 14% | 0.07 | 1.00 |
Serangoon | Yangzheng Primary | 49% | 14% | 11% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Serangoon | CHIJ Our Lady of Good Counsel | 25% | 2% | 9% | 0.00 | 0.38 |
Serangoon | St Gabriel’s Primary | 21% | 5% | -2% | 0.00 | 0.13 |
Serangoon | Zhonghua Primary | 19% | -3% | -1% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Tampines | St Hilda’s Primary | 54% | 2% | 2% | 0.51 | 1.00 |
Tampines | Poi Ching | 44% | 0% | 5% | 0.00 | 0.76 |
Tampines | Chongzheng Primary | 43% | -8% | -3% | 0.00 | 1.00 |
Tampines | East Spring Primary | 42% | -11% | -1% | 0.00 | 1.00 |
Tampines | Gongshang Primary | 42% | -8% | -12% | 0.00 | 1.00 |
Tampines | Tampines North Primary | 39% | -4% | -4% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Tampines | Yumin Primary | 37% | 3% | 2% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Tampines | Tampines Primary | 35% | 1% | 1% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Tampines | Changkat Primary | 33% | -7% | -7% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Tampines | Junyuan Primary | 32% | -2% | 0% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Tampines | Griffiths Primary | 20% | 4% | -4% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Tampines | East View Primary | 19% | -5% | 0% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Tampines | Qiaonan Primary | 13% | 1% | 5% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Toa Payoh | Pei Chun Public | 38% | -4% | -5% | 0.27 | 1.00 |
Toa Payoh | Cedar Primary | 35% | 5% | 4% | 0.00 | 0.02 |
Toa Payoh | Kheng Cheng | 31% | -5% | -6% | 0.00 | 0.04 |
Toa Payoh | CHIJ Primary (Toa Payoh) | 27% | 1% | 4% | 0.36 | 0.89 |
Toa Payoh | Maris Stella High | 27% | 2% | 0% | 0.11 | 0.60 |
Toa Payoh | St Andrew’s Junior | 25% | -1% | 5% | 0.18 | 0.84 |
Toa Payoh | Marymount Convent | 18% | 1% | -4% | 0.00 | 0.02 |
Toa Payoh | First Toa Payoh Primary | 15% | -2% | 0% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Woodlands | Greenwood Primary | 59% | 9% | 9% | 0.00 | 0.80 |
Woodlands | Admiralty Primary | 56% | 6% | 7% | 0.00 | 1.00 |
Woodlands | Evergreen Primary | 49% | -2% | 6% | 0.00 | 1.00 |
Woodlands | Innova Primary | 47% | 30% | 10% | 0.00 | 0.40 |
Woodlands | Woodlands Primary | 47% | 1% | 5% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Woodlands | Woodgrove Primary | 46% | -4% | -3% | 0.00 | 0.49 |
Woodlands | Fuchun Primary | 45% | 1% | -4% | 0.00 | 0.62 |
Woodlands | Woodlands Ring Primary | 39% | -15% | -4% | 0.00 | 0.69 |
Woodlands | Qihua Primary | 34% | -4% | -4% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Woodlands | Si Ling Primary | 27% | -5% | 5% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Woodlands | Marsiling Primary | 26% | 3% | 7% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Yishun | Northland Primary | 50% | 2% | 6% | 0.02 | 1.00 |
Yishun | Jiemin Primary | 44% | 1% | -7% | 0.00 | 0.69 |
Yishun | Chongfu Primary | 41% | -3% | 1% | 0.33 | 1.00 |
Yishun | Xishan Primary | 37% | 4% | 8% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Yishun | Yishun Primary | 35% | -1% | 3% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Yishun | Huamin Primary | 34% | 5% | 2% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Yishun | Peiying Primary | 31% | 2% | -2% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Yishun | Ahmad Ibrahim Primary | 31% | 5% | 2% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Yishun | North View Primary | 31% | 2% | -3% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Yishun | Naval Base Primary | 24% | 2% | 4% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sure get?
I happens to fall in phrase 2A(2) for NYPS, does it gurantee a "sure get in" or I should join the alumni and get myself into 2A(1)?
this heart attack process...i
this heart attack process…i almost burst 2 years ago š
Re: How to Read the Chart
CHIJ (Kellock)is 0.31, meaning there’s a 31% chance it will be balloting in phase 2C. And green means it will likely be balloting for those living outside 2km.
Then look at Catholic High. It’s red 1.0 for both 2B and 2C. So it’s 100% balloting for those within 1km…following pass history.
How to read the chart? What
How to read the chart? What does red, yellow & green represent? Example CHIJ (Kellock) is 0.31 Green?
So popular school would have
So popular school would have fierce competition is the class is cut down by 1 class or 2 class.
Great stats
A hearty thanks to the Kiasuparents team who is collating the stats for the P1 exercise. You are a really dedicated bunch.
Will be following your updates closely and keeping my fingers crossed that I can get the school I am targetting in 2C.
TUR for new schools
Chief,
the TUR for Phase 1 for brand new schools will almost certainly have high growth rate in their first few years, as the siblings of incumbents are only just starting to come into play. I think its hard to draw any conclusions about their attractiveness at this point. Nonetheless, very nice stats!
2005 birth rate
The 1% increase in birthrate for 2005 over 2004 is not significant. However, the pressure of getting a popular school is still there.
The chances are maybe 1 in 3 will successful in the ballot < 1km as compare to last year.
The vacancy for phase 2C will be lesser and lesser as more go by the back door I mean those phases before phase 2C.
Re: Colour Coding
Yes, I believe you are correct.
Birth rate
Hi titank,
The birth rate for 2005 is 37,492, but havent include those foreigners & PRs.
And compared to 2004, the birthrate is 37,174 , it’s an increase of 318 babies.
Colour Coding
Does the colour coding in the ballot risk mean the distance? Red- Within 1km, Yellow, 1-2km , Green- outside 2km?
2010 Births
There doesn’t seem to be much change. In 2010, the number of births is 37,987. So it seems each year is less than 1k difference.
2005 Birth rates
Found an old article written in Jan 2006. Almost 38k babies in 2005, a 1.13% increase over 2004.
26 Jan 2006
2005 Birth rates: Slight increase or rebound?
Birth rates show only a slight increase
TheĀ TUR haveĀ dropped could be
The TUR have dropped could be due to less siblings that have apply. We should be able to analyse further when it come to end of Phase 2A(2), 2B or at 2C.
By the way, what is the total birth rate for those that born in 2005? If anyone have the data then we can share it in here.