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P1 Registration (2012) – Phase 2A(1)

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a) For a child whose parent is a former student of the school and who has joined the alumni association as a member not later than 30 Jun 2010

b) For a child whose parent is a member of the School Advisory / Management Committee

Announcement of Results:
Thursday 7 July 2011

Details: Click here
Results: Click here
Post mortem: Click here

2011 Phase 1 results are out!  We have compiled the results in descending order of the Take Up Rate (TUR) so far, along with ballot risk in Phases 2B and 2C.

The Phase 1 TUR is of particular interest because it reflects the confidence level that parents have in the school to want to send another of the children to the same school.  An increase compared with the historical and 2010 performance indicates strong and consistent support from parents, while a decrease in both indicators tells the reverse story.

Greenwood Primary leads the pack, but it is Rosyth that draws our attention.  A resounding 56% of the places have been taken up, with a high 9% increase over the historical average.  It is safe to say that thanks to its great performance in PSLE last year, Rosyth will most likely feature ballots within 1km for Phase 2C.

Endeavour has also done remarkably well, with a 37% increase on its historical average.  Definitely not bad for a 3 year old school.  And so have Beacon and Innova, which are also new schools.

Bukit Panjang’s stock has dropped 7% over the historical average, although it has done marginally better compared to last year.  Gongshang has worsened (-8% over historical average, and -12% compared with last year).

The most severe drop is Compassvale, losing 20% on the historical average and 16% compared to last year.

The Ballot Risk column is based on a statistical analysis of historical data.  It is computed through a weighted average of actual ballot situations happening between 2006 and 2010, ie. if a school had a ballot at <1km last year, it increases the risk more significantly than if it happened 5 years ago.  It is by no means a guaranteed measure.  The risk ranges from 0.0 to 1.0, where 0.0 represents very low risk of balloting or cut-off at the given Phase, while 1.0 represents a very high risk of balloting or cut-off.  The Color coding provides an approximation of the distance at which the balloting could appear.  The Ballot risk does NOT take into account the increase or decrease of the TUR compared with the historical average.  You have to assess for yourself how the changes this year may affect the actual situation, which is why we have published all 3 figures.

  School TUR Difference vs Ballot Risk
Historical 2010 2B 2C
Ang Mo Kio Anderson Primary 46% 3% 3% 0.00 0.80
Ang Mo Kio Jing Shan Primary 33% 6% 7% 0.00 0.00
Ang Mo Kio Townsville Primary 32% -1% -2% 0.00 0.00
Ang Mo Kio CHIJ St Nicholas Girls’ 32% -2% -2% 0.91 1.00
Ang Mo Kio Ang Mo Kio Primary 31% -4% -12% 0.00 0.00
Ang Mo Kio Mayflower Primary 29% 0% -2% 0.00 0.00
Ang Mo Kio Teck Ghee Primary 26% -1% -1% 0.00 0.00
Ang Mo Kio Da Qiao Primary 15% -5% -12% 0.00 0.00
Bedok Temasek Primary 51% 4% 12% 0.07 1.00
Bedok Red Swastika 49% 2% 5% 0.07 1.00
Bedok Fengshan Primary 49% 7% 0% 0.00 0.38
Bedok Yu Neng Primary 44% -3% -11% 0.00 0.96
Bedok Telok Kurau Primary 42% -4% -3% 0.00 0.49
Bedok Bedok Green Primary 33% 1% 2% 0.00 0.00
Bedok St Stephen’s 25% 2% 7% 0.07 0.36
Bedok St Anthony’s Canossian Primary 21% -3% -4% 0.00 0.02
Bedok Opera Estate Primary 20% 1% 1% 0.00 0.00
Bedok CHIJ (Katong) Primary 19% -3% 0% 0.07 0.18
Bedok Damai Primary 16% -3% 2% 0.00 0.00
Bedok East Coast Primary 14% 0% 0% 0.00 0.00
Bedok Bedok West Primary 7% -2% -1% 0.00 0.00
Bishan Ai Tong 44% -1% -1% 0.80 1.00
Bishan Kuo Chuan Presbyterian Primary 33% -7% -7% 0.00 0.67
Bishan Catholic High 30% 0% -8% 1.00 1.00
Bishan Guangyang Primary 11% 0% -3% 0.00 0.00
Bukit Batok Princess Elizabeth Primary 55% 7% -6% 0.00 1.00
Bukit Batok Keming Primary 39% -5% -7% 0.00 0.87
Bukit Batok St Anthony’s Primary 32% -12% -3% 0.02 1.00
Bukit Batok Bukit View Primary 32% 3% 6% 0.00 0.00
Bukit Batok Lianhua Primary 29% -2% -3% 0.00 0.00
Bukit Batok Dazhong Primary 24% -2% 10% 0.00 0.00
Bukit Batok Hong Kah Primary 11% -2% -7% 0.00 0.00
Bukit Merah Zhangde Primary 40% 4% 0% 0.00 0.56
Bukit Merah Gan Eng Seng Primary 38% 8% 8% 0.00 0.00
Bukit Merah Radin Mas Primary 34% -8% -7% 0.00 0.87
Bukit Merah CHIJ (Kellock) 22% -3% 2% 0.00 0.31
Bukit Merah Blangah Rise Primary 16% 1% -6% 0.00 0.00
Bukit Merah Cantonment Primary 9% 9% 9% 0.00 0.00
Bukit Panjang Beacon Primary 48% 36% 23% 0.00 0.60
Bukit Panjang Greenridge Primary 47% -1% 4% 0.00 0.60
Bukit Panjang Bukit Panjang Primary 46% -7% 2% 0.00 0.93
Bukit Panjang Zhenghua Primary 36% -5% -7% 0.00 0.00
Bukit Panjang West View Primary 27% -5% -1% 0.00 0.00
Bukit Panjang CHIJ Our Lady Queen of Peace 26% 5% 6% 0.00 0.36
Bukit Timah Pei Hwa Presbyterian Primary 53% 9% 1% 0.20 0.82
Bukit Timah Nanyang Primary 52% 3% 6% 0.18 1.00
Bukit Timah Henry Park Primary 47% -2% 7% 0.02 0.89
Bukit Timah Raffles Girls’ Primary 31% 0% 1% 0.00 0.58
Bukit Timah Methodist Girls’ School (Primary) 30% -2% -3% 0.60 0.91
Bukit Timah Bukit Timah Primary 22% -5% -4% 0.00 0.00
Central River Valley Primary 33% -4% -11% 0.00 0.67
Central Anglo-Chinese School (Junior) 25% -4% -3% 0.33 0.78
Central St Margaret’s Primary 20% -1% -4% 0.00 0.27
Central Stamford Primary 19% 1% -4% 0.00 0.00
Choa Chu Kang South View Primary 54% 7% 2% 0.49 1.00
Choa Chu Kang Unity Primary 44% -6% 3% 0.00 0.87
Choa Chu Kang Concord Primary 41% -5% -4% 0.00 0.00
Choa Chu Kang De La Salle 40% -3% -1% 0.20 1.00
Choa Chu Kang Yew Tee Primary 38% -11% -7% 0.00 0.84
Choa Chu Kang Chua Chu Kang Primary 37% -3% -2% 0.00 0.00
Choa Chu Kang Kranji Primary 34% 4% 6% 0.00 0.00
Choa Chu Kang Teck Whye Primary 19% -6% -1% 0.00 0.00
Clementi Nan Hua Primary 45% 3% 3% 0.18 1.00
Clementi Qifa Primary 36% 6% -4% 0.00 0.11
Clementi Clementi Primary 33% -7% -11% 0.00 0.62
Clementi Pei Tong Primary 31% 10% 10% 0.00 0.00
Geylang Kong Hwa 48% 3% 7% 0.40 0.91
Geylang Geylang Methodist School 41% 3% 6% 0.00 0.49
Geylang Maha Bodhi 38% -5% -7% 0.00 0.96
Geylang Haig Girls’ 23% 2% 1% 0.00 0.00
Geylang Eunos Primary 23% -5% -6% 0.00 0.00
Geylang Canossa Convent Primary 20% 5% 7% 0.00 0.00
Geylang MacPherson Primary 16% -1% -3% 0.00 0.00
Hougang Xinmin Primary 50% 1% 0% 0.00 0.98
Hougang Hougang Primary 44% -3% -1% 0.00 1.00
Hougang Holy Innocents’ Primary 41% -2% 1% 0.22 0.91
Hougang Punggol Primary 40% 2% 2% 0.00 0.02
Hougang Yio Chu Kang Primary 28% 1% -4% 0.00 0.00
Hougang Xinghua Primary 24% -5% 0% 0.00 0.00
Hougang Paya Lebar Methodist Girls’ 24% -6% -1% 0.27 0.73
Hougang CHIJ Our Lady of the Nativity 22% 0% 5% 0.00 0.47
Hougang Montfort Junior 15% 0% -2% 0.00 0.00
Jurong East Jurong Primary 41% -4% -4% 0.00 0.69
Jurong East Fuhua Primary 37% 3% 0% 0.00 0.00
Jurong East Yuhua Primary 28% -2% 0% 0.00 0.00
Jurong West Rulang Primary 51% 5% 7% 0.20 1.00
Jurong West Shuqun Primary 47% 7% 6% 0.00 0.78
Jurong West West Grove Primary 41% -5% -6% 0.33 1.00
Jurong West Pioneer Primary 40% -3% 0% 0.00 0.00
Jurong West Lakeside Primary 40% 0% -5% 0.00 0.00
Jurong West Xingnan Primary 38% 1% 5% 0.00 0.18
Jurong West Jurong West Primary 36% -11% -2% 0.00 1.00
Jurong West Juying Primary 34% 5% 1% 0.00 0.00
Jurong West Boon Lay Garden Primary 30% 0% -2% 0.00 0.00
Jurong West Corporation Primary 14% -7% -8% 0.00 0.00
Jurong West Frontier Primary 0% 0% 0% 0.00 0.00
Kallang Hong Wen 37% -1% 5% 0.00 0.89
Kallang Bendemeer Primary 26% -11% -5% 0.00 0.07
Kallang Farrer Park Primary 11% -4% -3% 0.00 0.00
Marine Parade Tao Nan 51% 4% 8% 0.71 1.00
Marine Parade Tanjong Katong Primary 41% 9% 1% 0.00 0.00
Marine Parade Ngee Ann Primary 37% 2% 2% 0.00 0.13
Novena St Joseph’s Institution Junior 32% 4% 9% 0.33 0.67
Novena Anglo-Chinese School (Primary) 26% -1% 3% 0.73 0.91
Novena Singapore Chinese Girls’ Primary 26% -4% -2% 0.00 0.87
Novena Balestier Hill Primary 13% -1% -2% 0.00 0.00
Pasir Ris Pasir Ris Primary 52% 2% 4% 0.00 0.93
Pasir Ris White Sands Primary 47% -4% 8% 0.00 0.87
Pasir Ris Casuarina Primary 44% 8% 16% 0.00 0.00
Pasir Ris Elias Park Primary 43% 0% 6% 0.00 0.27
Pasir Ris Meridien Primary 32% -5% 2% 0.00 0.00
Pasir Ris Park View Primary 32% -3% 3% 0.00 0.00
Pasir Ris Coral Primary 22% -6% 3% 0.00 0.00
Pasir Ris Loyang Primary 15% -3% -4% 0.00 0.00
Punggol Edgefield Primary 49% 15% 19% 0.00 0.00
Punggol Mee Toh 42% 0% -1% 0.00 1.00
Punggol Greendale Primary 36% 25% 10% 0.00 0.00
Punggol Horizon 15% 15% 12% 0.00 0.00
Queenstown Fairfield Methodist Primary 41% -2% 5% 0.13 0.91
Queenstown New Town Primary 28% 4% 2% 0.00 0.00
Queenstown Queenstown Primary 26% -3% -10% 0.00 0.00
Sembawang Endeavour Primary 52% 37% 12% 0.00 0.42
Sembawang Canberra Primary 48% 0% 5% 0.00 1.00
Sembawang Wellington Primary 31% -4% -5% 0.00 0.00
Sembawang Sembawang Primary 24% -10% -8% 0.00 0.00
Seng Kang Rivervale Primary 45% -8% 1% 0.00 1.00
Seng Kang Nan Chiau Primary 41% -7% -2% 0.44 1.00
Seng Kang Fernvale Primary 33% 13% 16% 0.00 0.00
Seng Kang Anchor Green Primary 33% 21% 3% 0.00 0.00
Seng Kang Seng Kang Primary 32% -4% -3% 0.00 0.00
Seng Kang Compassvale Primary 30% -20% -16% 0.00 0.93
Seng Kang North Vista Primary 26% 15% -4% 0.00 0.00
Seng Kang North Spring Primary 26% -9% -7% 0.00 0.00
Serangoon Rosyth 56% 9% 14% 0.07 1.00
Serangoon Yangzheng Primary 49% 14% 11% 0.00 0.00
Serangoon CHIJ Our Lady of Good Counsel 25% 2% 9% 0.00 0.38
Serangoon St Gabriel’s Primary 21% 5% -2% 0.00 0.13
Serangoon Zhonghua Primary 19% -3% -1% 0.00 0.00
Tampines St Hilda’s Primary 54% 2% 2% 0.51 1.00
Tampines Poi Ching 44% 0% 5% 0.00 0.76
Tampines Chongzheng Primary 43% -8% -3% 0.00 1.00
Tampines East Spring Primary 42% -11% -1% 0.00 1.00
Tampines Gongshang Primary 42% -8% -12% 0.00 1.00
Tampines Tampines North Primary 39% -4% -4% 0.00 0.00
Tampines Yumin Primary 37% 3% 2% 0.00 0.00
Tampines Tampines Primary 35% 1% 1% 0.00 0.00
Tampines Changkat Primary 33% -7% -7% 0.00 0.00
Tampines Junyuan Primary 32% -2% 0% 0.00 0.00
Tampines Griffiths Primary 20% 4% -4% 0.00 0.00
Tampines East View Primary 19% -5% 0% 0.00 0.00
Tampines Qiaonan Primary 13% 1% 5% 0.00 0.00
Toa Payoh Pei Chun Public 38% -4% -5% 0.27 1.00
Toa Payoh Cedar Primary 35% 5% 4% 0.00 0.02
Toa Payoh Kheng Cheng 31% -5% -6% 0.00 0.04
Toa Payoh CHIJ Primary (Toa Payoh) 27% 1% 4% 0.36 0.89
Toa Payoh Maris Stella High 27% 2% 0% 0.11 0.60
Toa Payoh St Andrew’s Junior 25% -1% 5% 0.18 0.84
Toa Payoh Marymount Convent 18% 1% -4% 0.00 0.02
Toa Payoh First Toa Payoh Primary 15% -2% 0% 0.00 0.00
Woodlands Greenwood Primary 59% 9% 9% 0.00 0.80
Woodlands Admiralty Primary 56% 6% 7% 0.00 1.00
Woodlands Evergreen Primary 49% -2% 6% 0.00 1.00
Woodlands Innova Primary 47% 30% 10% 0.00 0.40
Woodlands Woodlands Primary 47% 1% 5% 0.00 0.00
Woodlands Woodgrove Primary 46% -4% -3% 0.00 0.49
Woodlands Fuchun Primary 45% 1% -4% 0.00 0.62
Woodlands Woodlands Ring Primary 39% -15% -4% 0.00 0.69
Woodlands Qihua Primary 34% -4% -4% 0.00 0.00
Woodlands Si Ling Primary 27% -5% 5% 0.00 0.00
Woodlands Marsiling Primary 26% 3% 7% 0.00 0.00
Yishun Northland Primary 50% 2% 6% 0.02 1.00
Yishun Jiemin Primary 44% 1% -7% 0.00 0.69
Yishun Chongfu Primary 41% -3% 1% 0.33 1.00
Yishun Xishan Primary 37% 4% 8% 0.00 0.00
Yishun Yishun Primary 35% -1% 3% 0.00 0.00
Yishun Huamin Primary 34% 5% 2% 0.00 0.00
Yishun Peiying Primary 31% 2% -2% 0.00 0.00
Yishun Ahmad Ibrahim Primary 31% 5% 2% 0.00 0.00
Yishun North View Primary 31% 2% -3% 0.00 0.00
Yishun Naval Base Primary 24% 2% 4% 0.00 0.00
0 Likes

Sure get?

I happens to fall in phrase 2A(2) for NYPS, does it gurantee a "sure get in" or I should join the alumni and get myself into 2A(1)?

this heart attack process...i

this heart attack process…i almost burst 2 years ago šŸ™

Re: How to Read the Chart

CHIJ (Kellock)is 0.31, meaning there’s a 31% chance it will be balloting in phase 2C. And green means it will likely be balloting for those living outside 2km.

Then look at Catholic High. It’s red 1.0 for both 2B and 2C. So it’s 100% balloting for those within 1km…following pass history.

How to read the chart? What

How to read the chart? What does red, yellow & green represent? Example CHIJ (Kellock) is 0.31 Green?

So popular school would have

So popular school would have fierce competition is the class is cut down by 1 class or 2 class. 

Great stats

A hearty thanks to the Kiasuparents team who is collating the stats for the P1 exercise. You are a really dedicated bunch.

Will be following your updates closely and keeping my fingers crossed that I can get the school I am targetting in 2C.

TUR for new schools

 Chief,

the TUR for Phase 1 for brand new schools will almost certainly have high growth rate in their first few years, as the siblings of incumbents are only just starting to come into play. I think its hard to draw any conclusions about their attractiveness at this point. Nonetheless, very nice stats!

2005 birth rate

The 1% increase in birthrate for 2005 over 2004 is not significant. However, the pressure of getting a popular school is still there.

The chances are maybe 1 in 3 will successful in the ballot < 1km as compare to last year.

 

The vacancy for phase 2C will be lesser and lesser as more go by the back door I mean those phases before phase 2C.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Re: Colour Coding

Yes, I believe you are correct.

Birth rate

Hi titank,

 

The birth rate for 2005 is  37,492, but havent include those foreigners & PRs.

 

And compared to 2004, the birthrate is  37,174 , it’s an increase of 318 babies.
 

Colour Coding

Does the colour coding in the ballot risk mean the distance? Red- Within 1km,  Yellow, 1-2km , Green- outside 2km?

 

2010 Births

There doesn’t seem to be much change. In 2010, the number of births is 37,987. So it seems each year is less than 1k difference.

2005 Birth rates

Found an old article written in Jan 2006. Almost 38k babies in 2005, a 1.13% increase over 2004.

26 Jan 2006

2005 Birth rates: Slight increase or rebound?

 

Birth rates show only a slight increase

37,593 babies registered last year but 1.13% rise still below replacement needs
By T. Rajan

MORE babies were born in Singapore last year, but the annual increase was slight despite measures to boost Singapore’s dwindling baby count.

A total of 37,593 babies were registered, an increase of 419 over 2004, according to latest official figures. This is an increase of 1.13 per cent.

At a replacement rate of 2.1, Singapore needs 50,000 babies a year to renew the population.

The 2005 figures from the Registry of Births and Deaths are, however, provisional numbers and may be revised upwards because not all actual births are immediately registered.

Analysts interviewed yesterday feel it is too early to tell if the baby-friendly incentives, introduced in August 2004, have succeeded in convincing Singaporeans to have more babies.

Said Professor Gavin Jones, a researcher at the National University of Singapore’s Asia Research Institute:

‘The key point is, it takes nine months for a baby to be produced. Some people take some time to get ready before they decide to have a child.’

However, in August last year, Minister for Community Development, Youth and Sports Dr Vivian Balakrishnan applauded the 3 per cent rise in birth rates between May and July.

He had called the increase, over the same period in 2004, an ‘encouraging sign’.

Singapore’s birth rate has been falling for the past few years and last year, the total fertility rate dropped to an all-time low of 1.24 children for each woman residing here.

To reverse the trend, Singapore revised its pro-baby policy in August 2004 and gave more incentives.

Cash gifts were extended and given to the first and fourth child as well. Other measures include longer maternity leave of 12 weeks, instead of eight, and a lower maid levy.

Thomson Medical Centre says the pro-baby incentives were a factor but not the main reason couples gave for having a baby.

Said its spokesman: ‘The decision on having a baby goes beyond the initial financial outlay of having a baby. The baby bonus is more of a bonus than the main reason to start a family or to have more children.’

The hospital has seen deliveries shoot up by 23 per cent, from 5,393 in 2004 to 6,628 last year.

TheĀ TUR haveĀ dropped could be

The TUR have dropped could be due to less siblings that have apply. We should be able to analyse further when it come to end of Phase 2A(2), 2B or at 2C.

By the way, what is the total birth rate for those that born in 2005? If anyone have the data then we can share it in here.

 

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