COE trends

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COE trends

Postby MMM » Mon Jun 06, 2011 1:31 pm

Was hoping to hear from some parents here especially those who have been monitoring the COE situation.

We are contemplating whether to change our 6 yrs plus going to 7 yrs old car now. Or drive for another 3 yrs plus.

How would you describe the COE situation? Any views? Some say it will only go up due to lesser quota. On the other hand, with new transport minister, wonder if they will make cars more accessible to win votes but at the expense of heavy traffic jams. I suppose it's anybody's guess... So wanted to hear some views.

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Re: COE trends

Postby dicky » Tue Jun 07, 2011 1:13 am

COE high when compared to time I buy my car. Now coming to 6 yr. Believe you bought yours at <20K COE prices. Personally cant help it if the COE hovers high when time to change cars. Just keeping my fingers crossed that car owners of the cheap COE will not extend their COEs or change cars earlier than 10 yrs. Why? The cheap COEs are mainly due to flood of COE supply about our time, and will also expired in 3 - 4 yrs time. So if no extend, the supply of COEs will add on to the usual annual COEs, and cause the prices to go down if less demand by then.... Though COEs may go higher too, but chances is there than now. So taking a calculated risk, anyway prefer to save more by driving all the way 10 yrs. Now pay monthly $600, chg car pay $1200. So $600 x 12 mths x 4 yrs = $28,800!

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Re: COE trends

Postby MMM » Tue Jun 07, 2011 3:10 am

Yah bet it's not an easy question.....

For us, the incremental cost of changing new car is around $300 per month with no additional cash outfront other than our existing car offset.

But if we were to drive 10 yrs. 3 yrs instalment savings (as we will fully pay off in few months time) + PARF, easily give us 70k. This could go into the next car purchase or maybe just the COE.......... We are being offered 40k for our current car. So we estimated the cost differential of about 30k if we were to change now.

But we need to consider higher maintenance cost and probably surprises as car grows older. COE going either way. I think what I hate most is to buy now and then COE drops by another 10-20k???

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Re: COE trends

Postby verykiasu2010 » Tue Jun 07, 2011 8:38 am

it depends how you look at the matter

buying a new car now means adding 7 more years to your existing "car life". How much is this 7 years going to cost you ? What is the new average cost works out to be ?

Assuming a new Camry 2.0 from Borneo now cost 130k. Your existing car being offered for 40K, hence the top up cost you 90k for 7 years or $12,857 for each year. If the Camry scrap value is 12k, then the annual depreciation is 11,800 plus road tax plus insurance

Compare $11,800 plus road tax plus insurance with your existing cost and see where are you willing to pay, or make the same calculation for a new car of your existing type

and if you are buying with finance, consider the interest cost too. don't be fooled by cashflow too - nothing is free.
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Re: COE trends

Postby dicky » Tue Jun 07, 2011 11:15 am

Good advise. Financial-wise I usually look at the annual depreciation.
Maintenance-wise, depends on the car you have, mine toyota but still serving very well accident-free save for a few small, near invisible dents. Usual servicing, chg tyre, chg battrey, never break down. From what I know, toyota cars don't break down in 1st ten-years....

I see what you mean. I bought mine at 15K COE, then it slipped all the way to 8K COE within 2 years. Even more reason for me not to chg car until necessary. Because if rise, my savings will cover the COE rise. But if fall, :slapshead: :slapshead: :slapshead:

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Re: COE trends

Postby MMM » Tue Jun 07, 2011 3:33 pm

Verykiasu2010,

Thanks for your perspective as always.

I wanted to hear from different perspective. The depreciation cost will definitely be higher due to significantly higher COE. We got our current car at 14k COE.

Yes, for us although number talks but we also need to consider the other non quantifiable factors. Eg. probably maintenance issues 3 years down the road? We were happily thinking that we will keep the car for 10 years. Come few months time, we need not pay any more loan and we will continue to save the same amount. But last weekend, when there was a heavy downpour.... realised that some part was leaking (eg. safety belt was wet and front sunshade had water dripping). We guess it's from the sunroof. Maybe rubber has loosen and need to change? But of course not as bad as those who are caught in Singapore flood. We don't need to carry umbrella in the car.

Hubby said should not be expensive but it's probably an understatement. Visit to workshop is never cheap. Also airbag indicator seems to be malfunctioning always on. Probably cost a bomb to fix that and dunno if we have to fix that as this was not flag in their last check. Another known factor is probably suspension? These are all the potential known areas but does not include any other surprises.

My first car after I passed my driving was a 7 yr old Hyundai Elantra. It cost me $35k as a brand new corolla at that point was $150k. But I had expensive surprises almost every other month ranging from tyres to timing belt to being stranded in car parks or on the road. That car provided a very good learning experience. I told myself.... if we can afford will not consider korean and 2nd hand car. No offence to korean car drivers as they probably have improved but just relating my personal experience. So after that experience, I am kind of wary of the issues that older car can bring. But the difference is that our current car is with us from day 1 and so far so good despite the problems listed above. It is regularly maintained by the agent and it has never let us down except for those battery/ tyre eg. minor easily corrected issues. But with age, we never know.

Another consideration for us also is our current car has clocked 200+km which is considered as pretty high. But I think the offer price given to us so far seems pretty reasonable if we compare in sgcarmart.

Next consideration is the space, we are changing from 7 to 8 seater. But that 1 seat is not going to be significant and we can still make do with it over the next 3 years.

dicky,

Just curious for toyota, do you need to change timing belt every 100000/ 120000km or something like that? I think that can be quite a bomb? I know Honda don't do that.

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Re: COE trends

Postby dicky » Tue Jun 07, 2011 8:49 pm

Eh? What is that? So far never heard about the need to change although my mileage already >150000. Sorry to hear that your car roof start to leak. This is the 2nd time I heard about car roof leak, but the 1st car was a proton saga 10 years back.

There seems to be some truth that Japan cars last 7 years and Korean cars last 4 years without problem. Mine yet to reach that 7th year to comment, but I do hear handful of comments on 5 - 7 yr old korean cars having issues yet did not hear any japan cars same age same issues.... No offense meant to korean car drivers...

Will ask on my next servicing about 2 - 3 wks time estimate. Actually eyeing 7-seater VW Touran 1.4L (pick up speed 9.6 better than mine 11.2 although my CC higher!). But as I said, $600 per mth car loan repaym suddenly double is disheartening :gloomy:

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Re: COE trends

Postby MMM » Tue Jun 07, 2011 9:21 pm

We are currently driving a honda odyssey. So leakage seems :shrug: The irony that due to hot weather, we seldom use sunroof.

We saw the VW Touran when we heard that it's a 7 seater and only 1.4L. Imagine the petrol savings. If you do not have 7 adult sized, it's fine. Otherwise space is definitely a key consideration.

We are looking at Toyota Previa. But it appear that there are more toyota estimata (parallel import) on the road than previa..... Not sure why. Still need to do homework. Price diff around 10k. :?

Yes, the timing belt thing is real. I asked the agent about it too and she talked about it too. Eg. every 100000 km/ 120000km must change and I think it's not cheap. My impression of borneo motors servicing is not cheap.

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Re: COE trends

Postby dicky » Tue Jun 07, 2011 10:47 pm

Usually toyota buyers are budget conscious than VW, Audi, etc... Borneo motor isn't cheaper. I long given up servicing there when they short change me. I once have a tyre puncture in 2year during the 3 yr warranty, so no choice but to seek help from a nearby Shell autoserv as sonny with me. They help me do some check and told me front drive shaft bad, advisble to change. Subsequently the next 2 servicing at borneo motors "fail" to tell me this problem and it slipped my mind. The 3rd servicing I decided do just 1 servicing at Shell Autoserv again just before warranty due and get their same report "Front drive shaft bad". So next servicing at borneo motors they also say same thing but warranty just over, so need pay $250 to change :mad: I change mine at a normal workshop for $135 instead. From then on, I buy new cars free servicing 3 years (like VW) ok, 3 or 5 year warranty no thanks.... The warranty void if service else where....

Oops. :oops: Complaining.... Off Topic :offtopic:

Japan car buyers usually price conscious I mean. So not surprising many go for parallel importers. Dealers more $x. Actually things are not made to last nowadays, cars are depreciating assets. At worst we need chg cars every 4 years, at best 7 years. For me, probably buy from dealers rather than parallel importers as more inconveience if car got issues later....

I rank my buyng choice in annual depreciation, COE, fuel efficiency, insurance then road tax in this order. Frankly it is very tempting to buy new stuffs or playthings..... :frustrated:

I leave it to the car workshop to gauge what needs to be done, safety first but no need over-kiasee as I don't speed. Anything wrong with car, sue lah... So far no court cases like this....

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Re: COE trends

Postby verykiasu2010 » Tue Jun 07, 2011 10:58 pm

dicky,

my issue with Toyota has been on the Thai-built quality, never with Borneo services. Japan built is okay for me

the Thai made Camry gave me problems, so bad that their engineers flew in from Thailand and Japan to try fix the problem. that problem not resolved and i decided i have enough of toyota (30 years). for service however they always check for me for worn out parts before expiry of warranty and get them replaced for free, even call me to go down before expiry date of warranty
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