Historical COP for Sec 1 Posting Exercise

Unlike entry to Primary Schools, admission into Secondary Schools is based on meritocracy. PSLE results are used as key admission criteria. Discuss everything related to PSLE and selection of Secondary Schools here.
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lee_yl
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Re: Historical COP for Sec 1 Posting Exercise

Post by lee_yl » Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:06 am

phtthp wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:51 pm
agree, lee_yl.

You have analyzed Hwa Chong case, well. Those who never take HCL and want to apply SAP schools, will be at a disadvantage. Zero chance to ballot, because those who scored +3 +2, +1 in their HCL, they will be given Higher priority to ballot.
So for SAP schools with COP of 6, if one is a 6 pointer (without HCL), don’t be too happy, because your child’s name may not even be inside the computer balloting system ?!

So for HCI, last place to be balloted between 6 pointers who scored Dist in HCL, and if only 5 got Dist, then your child’s chances of being chosen is 1/5.

But for RI, assume also last vacancy for 6 pointers to ballot, say if there are 500 students with 6 points applying, your kid’s chance of being balloted in is 1/500.



P/S: I suppose the logic should work somewhat like this, just that the figures I used are for illustration purposes only. MOE only briefly mentioned that when two persons tie, Dist in HCL has priority over Merit, but never go into the details.

floppy
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Re: Historical COP for Sec 1 Posting Exercise

Post by floppy » Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:27 am

lee_yl wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:06 am
...
P/S: I suppose the logic should work somewhat like this, just that the figures I used are for illustration purposes only. MOE only briefly mentioned that when two persons tie, Dist in HCL has priority over Merit, but never go into the details.
I thought MOE explanation has been fairly clear; it is as you have described.

While HCL, especially if the child starts from P1, will probably help CL, it isn’t very useful as a subject to take (for sec school admission) unless you have your sights set on HCI, NYGH, CHS, SNGS, DHS or RVHS - ie schools where with / without HCL will make or break a student’s entry to the IP stream or G3 / O Level.

phtthp
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Re: Historical COP for Sec 1 Posting Exercise

Post by phtthp » Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:52 am

lee_yl post_id wrote: So for SAP schools with COP of 6, if one is a 6 pointer (without HCL), don’t be too happy, because your child’s name may not even be inside the computer balloting system ?!

So for HCI, last place to be balloted between 6 pointers who scored Dist in HCL, and if only 5 got Dist, then your child’s chances of being chosen is 1/5.

But for RI, assume also last vacancy for 6 pointers to ballot, say if there are 500 students with 6 points applying, your kid’s chance of being balloted in is 1/500.



P/S: I suppose the logic should work somewhat like this, just that the figures I used are for illustration purposes only. MOE only briefly mentioned that when two persons tie, Dist in HCL has priority over Merit, but never go into the details.
balloting scene

1)

In Hwa Chong (SAP school) case, suppose only left 1 last vacancy, ballot.

inside the common pool of 6 pointers balloters, suppose we have


3 Distinction scorers of +3 (ie. >= 80 marks, Higher Chinese),
5 Merit scorers of +2 (ie. 65 to 79 marks, Higher Chinese),

6 Passed +1 (ie. 50 to 64 marks, Higher Chinese),

4 students never take Higher Chinese (PSLE),
2 students taken Higher Chinese, but failed (below 50 marks)

- then, only 3 Distinction scorers have chance, to ballot for the last, vacant seat.
Each of them have an equal (1/3) winning chance, of getting balloted in

Those (5 Merit scorers, 6 Passers, 4 students who did not take Higher Chance, plus 2 students who taken but failed HCL) : all Zero chance, since the last seat already been snapped up, by one of 5 Distinction scorers balloted in.


It doesn't mean that all who had sat for HCL (PSLE), will definitely pass HCL.


When come to balloting, if want to apply SAP schools, but never take Higher Chinese, tend to lose out.

Even if took Higher Chinese, those who just passed (50 to 64 marks range), scored +1 : also tend to lose out, to those with +2 and +3, because they will ballot first, before your turn come



2)

In RI (Non-SAP school), suppose also left 1 last vacancy.

suppose got 30 students, awaiting ballot, for this last precious seat.
Amongst these students, inside also got some who scored +3, +2, +1, Higher Chinese

But, because RI is Not a SAP school, so their +3, +2, +1 Higher Chinese earned, are dis-regarded.

Hence, each of these students, have an equal winning chance of (1 / 30), of getting balloted successfully in.
Last edited by phtthp on Fri Mar 15, 2019 10:37 am, edited 3 times in total.

mommyNg
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Re: Historical COP for Sec 1 Posting Exercise

Post by mommyNg » Fri Mar 15, 2019 10:24 am

I know it is for illustration purpose, but please pardon my stickiness, even for illustration purpose we should be as realistic as possible - there will never be a scenario in RI where there are 500 6 pointers balloting for 1 seat while HCI has 42 6 pointers balloting for 1 seat, all with the same rank choice. Hence the chance of being successful in the ballot will never be 1/500, and will always be higher than 1/500 for RI.

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Re: Historical COP for Sec 1 Posting Exercise

Post by obm » Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:05 am

phtthp wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:47 pm
MrsKiasu wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:14 pm
maybe balloting also they have layers (internally)? like the highest go first/allocated higher weightage? :shrug:
you mean, in the name of balloting, they refered to the internal T-score, captured inside the computer system (hidden info from parents' prying eyes), to determine the degree (or extent) of how lucky a candidate is, during balloting ?

This way, for the two identical 8 pointers, the "luckier" 259 T-score student will be balloted in first, before "unlucky" 248 T-score student, because 259 has a higher T-score (hidden info) than 248 student, therefore has "more luck", so to speak. ? No doubt their AL-score (8 points) is identical ( the same), however their T-score internally, is very far apart. (259 minus 248), is almost ten T-score points difference, apart. After all, no outsider (P6 parent nor student) is allowed to watch how they conduct balloting. Behind the scene, even if they made use of other sources of internal system crunched data available, nobody know except themselves, those conducting the ballot process. Balloting is Not a Transparent process, since outsiders cannot witness. So, the definition of 'luck", is not the divine luck that one usually think of initially.
It's the same as JAE computerised balloting.

JAE posting webpage says 'equal opportunity', so no internal fine layers like decimal or raw score differentiation. Pure luck. RANDOM like iBet, BTO flats and NDP tickets. Rigorously audited.

A parent on Pg 13 was correct to say you won't even know if you have undergone a ballot, because the central computer will just cascade to your Choice 2 as soon as you're balloted out at Choice 1. And suppose you are so unfortunate to encounter another tie at Choice 2, you just undergo balloting again until Choice 6. As with JAE posting, you are not going to be informed. All these algorithms should have been built in.

Probably they will issue the 2021 batch a booklet with COP estimates, and briefings will be conducted to ensure you don't select a school you are not prepared to be posted to or misrank your dream school or affiliated school?


mommyNg
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Re: Historical COP for Sec 1 Posting Exercise

Post by mommyNg » Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:19 am

Let's look at the numbers this way. Assume the cohort taking PSLE is 40,000 (in recent years this has dwindled to 38-39,000, but for ease of calculation, let's stick with 40,000). RI and HCI take in the top 5% of the cohort via PSLE scores. But let's assume 6-pointers is equivalent to top 6% -> top 6% is 40000*0.06 = 2400.

But of the 2400, I would say at least 60% are girls (girls usually tend to do better at PSLE), so
2400*0.4 = 960 boys.

Of the 960 boys, let's assume DSA would have taken in about 30% across the board, so remaining
960*0.7 = 672 boys eligible for admission via PSLE posting.

Of the 672 boys, not all would want to go HCI/RI, some would prefer to go NUS High (supplementary exercise), ACSI, etc., so assume about 600 boys left who want to go HCI/RI.

Of the 600 boys left, let's assume 300 are 4- and 5- pointers, and they all automatically got in without balloting, so there will remain 300 6-pointers. Of the 6 pointers, because of the new posting system such that choice matters, it is likely the child would choose either RI or HCI, so 150 6-pointers each.

Let's look at RI's case. There is likely to have 260 slots left (35% of 400 went to DSA), where a further 150 slots be taken up by the 4- and 5-pointers (the other 150 went to HCI), so left 110 slots. Of the 150 6-pointers who put RI as first choice, let's say 90% are Singaporean, that's 135. So that means the chance of getting into RI for a 6-pointer Singaporean via S1 posting regardless whether you took HCL or not or how well you did in HCL is 110/135*100 is about 82%.

Now we turn to HCI's case. Similar to RI, they would have 260 slots left for S1 posting, with 150 taken up by the 4- and 5-pointers and left with 110 slots. Assuming citizenship triumphs HCL, with 90% 6-pointers Singaporean, that's 135, will vie for a spot at HCI. The 135 then will break down to Distinction, Merit, and Pass. Assuming 20% Distinction, 40% Merit, 30% pass, 2% fail, 8% did not take HCL, this will mean 27D, 54M, 40P, 14F/NoTake. So the ballot will take place only for a 6-pointer Singaporean who got a Pass in HCL, and the chance would be 40/54*100 = 74%, but 0% for the 6-pointer Singaporean who fail or did not take HCL.

*Note: the actual % would change depending on the actual numbers. The estimates are as close as what I think it would be given that MOE does not publish official numbers.

MrsKiasu
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Re: Historical COP for Sec 1 Posting Exercise

Post by MrsKiasu » Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:29 am

mommyNg, your analysis :yikes: :udawoman:
Last edited by MrsKiasu on Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:35 am, edited 1 time in total.

lee_yl
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Re: Historical COP for Sec 1 Posting Exercise

Post by lee_yl » Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:31 am

mommyNg wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 10:24 am
I know it is for illustration purpose, but please pardon my stickiness, even for illustration purpose we should be as realistic as possible - there will never be a scenario in RI where there are 500 6 pointers balloting for 1 seat while HCI has 42 6 pointers balloting for 1 seat, all with the same rank choice. Hence the chance of being successful in the ballot will never be 1/500, and will always be higher than 1/500 for RI.
According to MOE website, there are max 29 possible scores (AL4-AL32). Given birth rate approx 40,000 per year, so how many kids may come under AL 6 points?

You missed the fact that for those applying to SAP schools like HCI, having HCL will straight away have priority. So in an extreme case scenario when it’s down to the last place for both schools with 500 in the queue, for HCI, those without HCL wouldn’t even stand a chance and among those left, those with distinction in HCL will be ranked ahead which leaves perhaps 10% of the original population

phtthp
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Re: Historical COP for Sec 1 Posting Exercise

Post by phtthp » Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:19 pm

Hi Lee_yl,

In that case, because of balloting happening in Hwa Chong and RI, for those parents who "die die" want their kid to end up in either of these Top 2 prestigious school, in terms of churning out stellar A-level results, and are not interested in any other IP school -

isn't it better to take HCL and ballot at Hwa Chong, than to ballot at RI ?

At least, if u do well in HCL and ballot at Hwa Chong, your chance of entering Hwa Chong is way much higher, since can made use of higher priority HCL to enter, compared to many others competing concurrently with u over at RI via ballot, because even though they had never taken HCL before, yet they still have the same amount (degree) of "fighting" chance as you, at RI ?

As it is, a lot of parents with P6 students studying in SAP primary schools, tend to be in favor of continue studying in SAP secondary schools, if they can.

phtthp
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Re: Historical COP for Sec 1 Posting Exercise

Post by phtthp » Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:51 pm

zac's mum wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:10 pm
Actually hor, maybe we won’t even know if our kid has undergone balloting or not. I doubt the SMS will reveal whether balloting took place. The standard template is “your child BC number T7654321A has been posted to ABC secondary school”. Isn’t it?

It’s only after the SMS then the parents would be comparing and find out that one 8-pointer put ABC school as Nth choice and got in but another 8-pointer also put ABC school as Nth choice but didn’t get in. Only then we will know that balloting took place for the 8-pointers.
agree, even if the P6 child have been balloted out, neither the child nor parents will be able to know. When they inform us via phone sms on that 2021 December morning, that child got posted to ABC school, won't know is it balloted in, or by non-ballot way
Last edited by phtthp on Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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