Why I think psle 2013 cop for 2014 sec 1 intake will drop

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Why I think psle 2013 cop for 2014 sec 1 intake will drop

Postby happiemum » Sat Nov 23, 2013 7:54 am

Dear parents, I'm sure everyone agrees that the top score for psle 2013 is unusually much lower from the past years. Based on info from the other thread, the top 3% of the cohort of 43047 which qualifies for eesis is as low as 257/258.

I don't know how many vacancies are there in the individual ip school so I'll just assume that they each have around 400 vacancies. Top tier ip schools like RGS, NYGS, RI, HCI, NJC,NUSH will have a total of 2400 vacancies. Let's assume again that half of these 1200 slots may have already been taken via dsa so remaining 1200 slots left for s1 posting exercise. Let's assume again that 1292 (top 3% of cohort) students will fill up these remaining slots. Thus, I predict the cop for these schools maybe lowered to 257/258 depending on cop for this year eesis. Very likely, some of the 1292 top 3% scorer might have already dsa to schools other than these 5 schools so this mean that the few hundred slots will be free up to 3013 students ( the next top 7% scorers with t score 251 to 257/258) so I predict the cop for these schools maybe drop further to 255/256.

The balance of these 3013 students (next 7% top scorer of the cohort) having t score between 251 to 257/258, assuming all taking up ip/ib programmes will fill up the vacancies of the next tier ip schools like dun man high, river valley high, chij st nick, mgs, cedar, scgs, tjc,chs, acsi. Thus, I predict the cop for dh, rv maybe around 252-254 and the cop for the rest to be 251.

Off courses, these are very bold predictions. Purpose of me starting this thread is for parents to contribute more discussion as this year t score being unusually lower thus, cop for s1 posting most like be lower and the previous years cop doesn't seem to be releastic.

happiemum
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Re: Why I think psle 2013 cop for 2014 sec 1 intake will dro

Postby Jennifer » Sat Nov 23, 2013 8:14 am

NJC cohort is ard 200 only.

I am confused abt the 3013 written in your post.

Based on MOE data, 66.7% of cohort 43047 made it to Express stream.

I am interested in your post, can u take in these info I posted to recalculate the cop trend?

Many thanks for your time n efforts.

:smile:

Jennifer
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Re: Why I think psle 2013 cop for 2014 sec 1 intake will dro

Postby JJ1111 » Sat Nov 23, 2013 8:23 am

Last year a few ip school cop is 251 (eg. TJC)

Mmmmm... So for this year there is a possibility that some ip school COP lower than 251?

I know some parents don't like IP school they prefer an olevel to fall into.
Last edited by JJ1111 on Sat Nov 23, 2013 8:54 am, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: Why I think psle 2013 cop for 2014 sec 1 intake will dro

Postby jetsetter » Sat Nov 23, 2013 8:25 am

hi Jennifer

"3013 students ( the next top 7% scorers with t score 251 to 257/258)", after removing top 3%.

That's from happiemum's earlier bold hypothesis: "Top tier ip schools like RGS, NYGS, RI, HCI, NJC,NUSH will have a total of 2400 vacancies"; each sch with 400 places.

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Re: Why I think psle 2013 cop for 2014 sec 1 intake will dro

Postby jetsetter » Sat Nov 23, 2013 8:35 am

happiemum wrote:Let's assume again that 1292 (top 3% of cohort) students will fill up these remaining slots. Thus, I predict the cop for these schools maybe lowered to 257/258 depending on cop for this year eesis.

Very likely, some of the 1292 top 3% scorer might have already dsa to schools other than these 5 schools so this mean that the few hundred slots will be free up to 3013 students ( the next top 7% scorers with t score 251 to 257/258) so I predict the cop for these schools maybe drop further to 255/256.

The balance of these 3013 students (next 7% top scorer of the cohort) having t score between 251 to 257/258, assuming all taking up ip/ib programmes will fill up the vacancies of the next tier ip schools like dun man high, river valley high, chij st nick, mgs, cedar, scgs, tjc,chs, acsi. Thus, I predict the cop for dh, rv maybe around 252-254 and the cop for the rest to be 251.


Sounds plausible, based on the info parents hv generously provided to this forum.

Thanks for your great insights, though I've no PSLE kid this year:)

jetsetter
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Re: Why I think psle 2013 cop for 2014 sec 1 intake will dro

Postby Jennifer » Sat Nov 23, 2013 8:36 am

jetsetter wrote:hi Jennifer

"3013 students ( the next top 7% scorers with t score 251 to 257/258)", after removing top 3%.

That's from happiemum's earlier bold hypothesis: "Top tier ip schools like RGS, NYGS, RI, HCI, NJC,NUSH will have a total of 2400 vacancies"; each sch with 400 places.


Oic, when calculating the top 10%, do we use the total number of pupils sat for PSLE or just the number made it to Express stream?

Sorry for these questions, I failed statistics in sch :sad:

Jennifer
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Re: Why I think psle 2013 cop for 2014 sec 1 intake will dro

Postby happiemum » Sat Nov 23, 2013 8:45 am

Haha I'm not a statistic expert too. But I computed top 10% of cohort of 43047 students as I read from other thread that some principal mentioned that the top 10% of cohort score 250 and above. I'm not sure whether students score 250 and below can take ip courses. I hope more parents can contribute to this discussion so that we can roughly gauge the potential cop for our dream schools. I strongly believe cop will be lower this year as eesis cop this year is much lower than prior years.

happiemum
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Re: Why I think psle 2013 cop for 2014 sec 1 intake will dro

Postby Nebbermind » Sat Nov 23, 2013 8:46 am

With easier papers, that means the lower half of the bell did better and the probably explain the higher % of kids going into express.

At the same time, those uber bright ones didn't have such a great advantage at the top end and that explains the fact that most schools have rep around 270.

So now the bell looks squashed, ie, narrower as compared to previous years.

With the 3% and 10% markers remaining about the same, I believe that COP may drop for those top schools but not significantly.

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Re: Why I think psle 2013 cop for 2014 sec 1 intake will dro

Postby jetsetter » Sat Nov 23, 2013 8:48 am

Jennifer wrote:
jetsetter wrote:hi Jennifer

"3013 students ( the next top 7% scorers with t score 251 to 257/258)", after removing top 3%.

That's from happiemum's earlier bold hypothesis: "Top tier ip schools like RGS, NYGS, RI, HCI, NJC,NUSH will have a total of 2400 vacancies"; each sch with 400 places.


Oic, when calculating the top 10%, do we use the total number of pupils sat for PSLE or just the number made it to Express stream?

Sorry for these questions, I failed statistics in sch :sad:



It appears that happiemum has based on the entire 2013 PSLE cohort, NA/NT included :)

"Based on info from the other thread, the top 3% of the cohort of 43047 which qualifies for eesis is as low as 257/258.

How is EESIS calculated ah? Inclusive of Express & above only is it or 3% of whole cohort? heheh...I'm also learning new things from u guys...

jetsetter
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Re: Why I think psle 2013 cop for 2014 sec 1 intake will dro

Postby lexis » Sat Nov 23, 2013 9:04 am

Thanks for the analysis. Interesting.

I think COP will drop, but i can't gauge by how much. I suspect there's a compression of the results from 250-259, meaning more than the usual number of children fall within this band.

Not sure if top 10% is retained at 250, or it has shifted downwards.

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