We have decided to run a series of articles about each group of Primary schools based on a “simulated” Phase 2A scenario.
- First, we subtracted 20 places from Phase 2A.
- Then, we added the application rates for Phase 2A(1) to Phase 2A(2)
- We then divided this number by the total take-up rate for both phases.
- We do the same thing for each of the years until 2017
- Finally, we sort the results according to the school with the highest take-up rate in 2021.
There isn’t much surprise here. CHIJ St Nicholas Girls’ is consistently oversubscribed every year, as its value is more than 1.0. So I’m sure it will remain oversubscribed in 2022, where the number of places for Phase 2A is reduced by 20.
Although Anderson Primary escaped oversubscription last year, we see that it would have required balloting in 2020 and 2018, so we have to keep a close eye on this school.
And then the is Jing Shan Primary. It would have required balloting in 2018. But keep in mind that 2018 is also the year for Dragon kids, so maybe that is the only year where the school needs to ballot.
For the rest of the schools in Ang Mo Kio, we can see that the risk of oversubscription is well below 0.5, so it is very low and unlikely to require balloting in Phase 2A.