Today, we look at Phase 2A at Bedok’s primary schools.  As said before, we simulated a Phase 2A scenario with 20 places removed from the Phase.

• First, we subtracted 20 places from Phase 2A.
• Then, we added the application rates for Phase 2A(1) to Phase 2A(2).
• We then divided this number by the total take-up rate for both phases.
• We do the same thing for each of the years from 2017 to 2021.
• Finally, we sort the results according to the school with the highest take-up rate in 2021.

Temasek Primary turns out to be the most overscribed school under the simulated Phase 2A scenario.  It is rather surprising, as it only became “oversubscribed” in 2019, but the intensity has suddenly doubled in 2020 and 2021.  Perhaps this is because of its small cohort size of 200.

Yu Neng Primary is next, and it is probably due to its very small cohort of 180.

Finally we have Red Swastika which has a nice cohort of 240 places.

All 3 schools are very likely to require balloting in Phase 2A in the upcoming P1 Registration Exercise.  As for the rest, Fengshan Primary has had a close one in 2020 but was quite normal in other years, averaging around 50%.  The remaining schools have at most 55% take up rate, and are unlikely to require any balloting in Phase 2A in the next P1 registration.

Bishan Schools Phase 2A Projections