We look at the potential balloting risk in Phase 2A for the upcoming P1 registration this week.

• We subtract 20 places from Phase 2A (ie. Phase 2A(1) + Phase 2A(2)).
• We added the application rates for Phase 2A(1) + Phase 2A(2).
• We then divided this number by the total take-up rate for Phase 2A(1) + Phase 2A(2).
  ie. Intensity = application rate/take-up rate
• We repeated the same process for the last 5 years.
• Finally, we sort the results according to the school with the highest application rate in 2021.

This is one of the most competitive districts in Singapore, given its small size (only 3 schools) and the fact that 2 of the schools are some of the most coveted schools in Singapore.

Catholic High leads the pack, being above 1.0 for the last 5 years.  This means that it would have required balloting in Phase 2A if the number of places is reduced by 20 in that phase.  The same thing is true for Ai Tong, although it seems to be marginally less competitive than Catholic High.  We should note, however, that Ai Tong had 300 places, compared to Catholic High’s 240 places, so it’s hard to say which school is really more competitive.  The good news is, the oversubscription is only marginal, at between 1.0084 to 1.4330.  But if you are looking for a sure thing, I would avoid either schools in Phase 2A.

That would leave us with Kuo Chuan Presbyterian Primary, which has the highest rate of 0.7833 in 2020.  In none of the simulated last 5 years does KCP require balloting, so we should expect it to be quite safe for parents in the upcoming Phase 2A.

Bukit Batok Schools Phase 2A Projections