We added the application rates for Phase 2A(1) + Phase 2A(2) simulating Phase 2A.
This is the number of people that applied for the phases.
We subtract 20 places from Phase 2A.
We then divided the application rate by the resulting number of places.
ie. intensity = application rate/number of places
We repeated the same process for the last 5 years.
Finally, we sort the results according to the school with the highest application rate in 2021.
Again, only 1 school, West Spring Primary, would have been oversubscribed in our simulation. But it is a relatively “new” school (having started only in 2013) and has dips where it was as low as 0.0260 in 2017, to a high of 1.3256 in 2019. It did go down to 1.1528 in 2021, but I suspect that the new Phase 2A ruling will probably send it into overdrive and it is likely to face balloting this year.
The other school to watch out for is Bukit Panjang Primary. Although the school was not oversubscribed at all in our simulation, it did suddenly increase its intake to 0.9277 in 2021 when it was lounging at the 0.6+ in the earlier years. Hopefully this does not translate to a large intake for Phase 2A this year.
The rest of the schools in Bukit Panjang are fine, going from 0.0177 to 0.3704.