Today, we look at the Phase 2A projections we can make on Bukit Timah schools.
We added the application rates for Phase 2A(1) + Phase 2A(2) simulating Phase 2A.
This is the number of people that applied for the phases.
We subtract 20 places from Phase 2A.
We then divided the application rate by the resulting number of places.
ie. intensity = application rate/number of places
We repeated the same process for the last 5 years.
Finally, we sort the results according to the school with the highest application rate in 2021.
This is one of the most, if not the most, competitive areas of Singapore. Pei Hwa Presbyterian Primary seems to be the most competitive of the lot, but a closer examination shows that it only had 224 vacancies last year. In 2017, it was not oversubscribed. It will very likely be balloting in the coming Phase 2A, if it doesn’t increase the number of available vacancies.
Nanyang Primary, however, was oversubscribed every year, and it has almost twice the number of vacancies at 390. It will require balloting in Phase 2A. The good news is that the oversubscription hovers about 25% to 32% of its places for Phase 2A, so there is still a good chance of success if you stay <1km away.
Henry Park Primary would have been oversubscribed for 3 out of the 5 years in our simulation, but it only escaped balloting very narrowly in the 2 years. The good news is that demand dropped slightly last year in 2021, but I’m quite sure it will be oversubscribed in this year’s registration.
Methodist Girls School is the least oversubscribed of the lot, hovering at the 1.0 threshold in all the 5 years. I expect balloting to be mild this year for the school.
The last 2 schools, Raffles Girls’ Primary and Bukit Timah Primary, should be safe from balloting in Phase 2A.