We look at the schools of the Central district today.

• We added the application rates for Phase 2A(1) + Phase 2A(2) simulating Phase 2A.
  This is the number of people that applied for the phases.
• We subtract 20 places from Phase 2A.
• We then divided the application rate by the resulting number of places.
  ie. intensity = application rate/number of places
• We repeated the same process for the last 5 years.
• Finally, we sort the results according to the school with the highest application rate in 2021.

This is one of the hardest regions to predict.  The good news is that only in 2020 was ACS Junior and River Valley Primary oversubscribed, and the oversubscription rate is very small.  So for this year, I believe ACS Junior will probably be oversubscribed again, but it will be quite marginal.  Note that the cohort size for ACS Junior in 2021 is quite large at 270.  So parents who stay within 1km shouldn’t worry so much especially with their Singaporean kids.

River Valley Primary is harder to predict.  As you can see, its simulated Phase 2A can be as low as 0.4828 in 2017 all the way to as high as 1.0000 in 2020.  We will go with the general feeling that it will avoid balloting this year in Phase 2A, although its cohort size of 210 in 2021 is rather small.

St Margaret’s Primary hovers from 0.2637 to 0.4250, and will most likely not require balloting in Phase 2A.

Choa Chu Kang Phase 2A Projections