We added the application rates for Phase 2A(1) + Phase 2A(2) simulating Phase 2A.
This is the number of people that applied for the phases.
We subtract 20 places from Phase 2A.
We then divided the application rate by the resulting number of places.
ie. intensity = application rate/number of places
We repeated the same process for the last 5 years.
Finally, we sort the results according to the school with the highest application rate in 2021.
It is no surprise that Nan Hua Primary is consistently oversubscribed in our simulation. It has always been a highly sought after school in Singapore. Other than 2018, it has been slowly increasing in its take up rate and is almost 150% oversubscribed in 2021. It’s cohort of 240 is the smallest of the lot in Clementi, and it would help if it extends its premises a bit but this might be difficult as it is in a tight geographical location. Last year, even those that live <1km away has to ballot and in 2019, those that lived >2km has to ballot in Phase 2A(1)! There was no balloting for Phase 2A(1) and (2) in 2018, but our simulation shows that it would have required balloting if the number of places is reduced by 20.
The rest of the schools in Clementi is safe from balloting at Phase 2A, with Qifa Primary being able 57% full in 2020. These are good schools too, so please go for them if you can.