Hougang Phase 2A Projections
This week, we look at the Primary schools in Hougang.
- We added the application rates for Phase 2A(1) + Phase 2A(2) simulating Phase 2A.
This is the number of people that applied for the phases.
- We subtract 20 places from Phase 2A.
- We then divided the application rate by the resulting number of places.
ie. intensity = application rate/number of places
- We repeated the same process for the last 5 years.
- Finally, we sort the results according to the school with the highest application rate in 2021.
We have a tricky situation with Holy Innocents’ Primary. On the one hand, its simulated take up rate was as low as 69% in 2017 but it went up to 138% in 2021! It did go into balloting in 2018 in our simulation, but remember, that was the year for Dragon kids. Regardless, it always led the Phase 2A intake for Hougang, and there is little reason not to believe that it will require balloting this year in Phase 2A.
As for the rest of the schools in Hougang, Phase 2A take up rate was from 0% (2021 Yio Chu Kang Primary) all the way to 77% (2018 Xinmin Primary). So they are all pretty safe bets against balloting.