We look at the small estate of Kallang now.  We have some good news.

• We added the application rates for Phase 2A(1) + Phase 2A(2) simulating Phase 2A.
  This is the number of people that applied for the phases.
• We subtract 20 places from Phase 2A.
• We then divided the application rate by the resulting number of places.
  ie. intensity = application rate/number of places
• We repeated the same process for the last 5 years.
• Finally, we sort the results according to the school with the highest application rate in 2021.

And the good news is, it is very doubtful that any of the schools in Kallang will require balloting in Phase 2A.  The simulation shows only Hong Wen requiring some sort of balloting in 2018, which is the year for Dragon kids.  But throughout the rest of the years including last year, the applications for Phase 2A in Hong Wen hovers between 46% and 58%.  So it is unlikely that Hong Wen will require any form of balloting in Phase 2A.

As for the other 2 schools, the simulated Phase 2A take up rate is as low as 3% and as high as 25%.  These will not require any balloting at all.

Marine Parade Phase 2A Projections