Marine Parade Phase 2A Projections


This week, we look at the Marine Parade cluster of schools.  This is another small area with only 3 schools.

  • We added the application rates for Phase 2A(1) + Phase 2A(2) simulating Phase 2A.
    This is the number of people that applied for the phases.
  • We subtract 20 places from Phase 2A.
  • We then divided the application rate by the resulting number of places.
    ie. intensity = application rate/number of places
  • We repeated the same process for the last 5 years.
  • Finally, we sort the results according to the school with the highest application rate in 2021.

Tao Nan has the highest cohort size of 360 places last year, but it is the school most likely to require balloting of Phase 2A this year.  In our simulation, it appears that the demand for the school at Phase 2A has been creeping up from 82% in 2017 all the way to 119% in 2021.  The good news is the oversubscription rate is quite mild, so if you qualify for Tao Nan in this Phase, chances are still good that your child can get in.

For the other schools, take up rates go from 21% to 56% over the last 5 years.  They are unlikely to require any balloting at all.

Novena Phase 2A Projections