We look at the 3 schools in the Novena district. This is usually a pretty competitive area because the schools have been there a very long time and are well established.
We added the application rates for Phase 2A(1) + Phase 2A(2) simulating Phase 2A.
This is the number of people that applied for the phases.
We subtract 20 places from Phase 2A.
We then divided the application rate by the resulting number of places.
ie. intensity = application rate/number of places
We repeated the same process for the last 5 years.
Finally, we sort the results according to the school with the highest application rate in 2021.
Based on our simulation, it appears that Anglo-Chinese School, ie. ACS Primary, will likely go into balloting for Phase 2A, albeit only by a very small margin. It went into oversubscription from 2019, and the years leading to it has shown interest in the school at this stage has been growing steadily.
As for Singapore Chinese Girl’s Primary, or SCGS Primary, it’s hard to tell as it has been hovering around the oversubscription limit over the last 5 years. But I’ll put my bet on it being oversubscribed this year, probably marginally. That is, if the cohort size remain at 192, which is the smallest of the lot in Novena.
As for St Joseph’s Institution Junior, or SJI Junior, the application rate for this schools hovers at 50%, so it is very unlikely to require any balloting in Phase 2A.