Punggol Phase 2A Projections
Submitted by Chief Kiasu
This week, we look at Punggol, a growing somewhat-new town with lots of new schools. The size of each school’s cohort is also rather big, with Mee Toh having 320 places in 2021!
As usual, we simulate Phase 2A for the last 5 years with the following parameters:
- We added the application rates for Phase 2A(1) + Phase 2A(2) simulating Phase 2A.
This is the number of people that applied for the phases. - We subtract 20 places from Phase 2A.
- We then divided the application rate by the resulting number of places.
ie. intensity = application rate/number of places - We repeated the same process for the last 5 years.
- Finally, we sort the results according to the school with the highest application rate in 2021.
Horizon Primary has a huge jump in Phase 2A(2) applications last year compared to the earlier years. There were 102 applications for only 62 places. Given that Phase 2A is losing 20 seats, it’s going to be worst this year. I’m curious why it happened, as Horizon has always been below 50% applications in Phase 2A. It’s a young school, having only come to being in 2009. Anyway, unless last year was an anomaly, it looks like those going for Horizon this year will be in for balloting.
Then, there is Punggol Green Primary. Although it is even younger than Horizon Primary (coming online in 2012), it regularly exceeded the thresholds of our simulation for the last 3 years. The good news is that the over subscription is rather mild.
Next, we have Waterway Primary. This is the youngest of the lot so far, coming on line in 2015. It has been growing in popularity over the few years of its inception, and will likely be marginally oversubscribed this year.
As for Punggol View Primary, there was oversubscription in 2020, but 2021 was OK. It came on line in 2012, and its take-up rate for Phase 2A has been rather irregular. Hopefully it will not require balloting this year.
The rest of the schools in Punggol should be free from balloting. Northshore Primary is only 2 years in its making, while Mee Toh, the grand old dame, is only 31% filled last year. The only one to watch out for is Oasis Primary, which has been averaging 73% – 80% full in our simulation.
