We will consider Queenstown area, a small district with only 3 well established schools.
As usual, we will simulate Phase 2A based on the data we have from the last 5 years.
- We added the application rates for Phase 2A(1) + Phase 2A(2) simulating Phase 2A.
This is the number of people that applied for the phases.
- We subtract 20 places from Phase 2A.
- We then divided the application rate by the resulting number of places.
ie. intensity = application rate/number of places
- We repeated the same process for the last 5 years.
- Finally, we sort the results according to the school with the highest application rate in 2021.
Fairfield Methodist Primary is likely to be marginally oversubscribed in Phase 2A this year. Its lowest subscription was in 2019, which was already 95% filled. It has its highest subscription rate in 2021 with 119%. It has always been a very hot school in Phase 2C, and I suspect that same trend will start for Phase 2A.
For Queenstown Primary and New Town Primary, these schools are very unlikely to face any kind of balloting in Phase 2A. Queenstown Primary has its highest in-take last year at 31%, while New Town has its highest at 12% in 2018
Sembawang Phase 2A Projections