This week, we look at the situation in Seng Kang, a relatively young estate with 12 schools.

• We added the application rates for Phase 2A(1) + Phase 2A(2) simulating Phase 2A.
  This is the number of people that applied for the phases.
• We subtract 20 places from Phase 2A.
• We then divided the application rate by the resulting number of places.
  ie. intensity = application rate/number of places
• We repeated the same process for the last 5 years.
• Finally, we sort the results according to the school with the highest application rate in 2021.

Last year, Nan Chiau Primary has 300 places, the highest number of vacancies allotted for a school in this area.

The good news is, it seems that most of the schools in Seng Kang might actually escape balloting.  Springdale Primary did go into mild oversubscription in our simulation in 2021, for the first time.  However, it was trending at between 48% to 58% full before 2021.  It is a young school, having been started only in 2012.  As Springdale seems to be gaining in popularity, we suspect that it may require balloting this year but it should be rather mild.

Sengkang Green Primary went into oversubscription in 2020 (very mildly) but returned to it usual place at 75% full last year in 2021.  However, the risk of balloting is still present, though again, it would be mild.

The rest of the schools in Seng Kang have at most 65% subscription.  Palm View Primary ranges from 1% – 8%.  So the balloting risk for these schools is very low.  Even Nan Chiau Primary was only 31% – 54% full in this Phase.  So there is little risk that any of these schools will face balloting at Phase 2A this year.

Serangoon Phase 2A Projections