Today, we look at the Serangoon district, a small but mature district with only 5 schools.
We added the application rates for Phase 2A(1) + Phase 2A(2) simulating Phase 2A.
This is the number of people that applied for the phases.
We subtract 20 places from Phase 2A.
We then divided the application rate by the resulting number of places.
ie. intensity = application rate/number of places
We repeated the same process for the last 5 years.
Finally, we sort the results according to the school with the highest application rate in 2021.
It is without a doubt that Rosyth will require balloting this year in Phase 2A. Observing the figures, it has been hovering between 112% and 149% oversubscription before it went into a whopping 167% rate last year in 2021. Note that Rosyth also has the highest number of vacancies (270) given to schools in this region.
The rest of the schools in this region seems to be rather quiet, with the exception of Yangzheng Primary which would have gone into balloting in 2018 (which was the year for Dragon kids). The lowest is 3% uptake from Zhonghua Primary in 2019, and up to 58% for Yangzheng Primary in 2021 (disregarding the sudden surge in 2018). These schools should be safe from having to ballot in Phase 2A this year.