There is a great deal of change for P1 Registration next year in 2022. As a result, we cannot provide an accurate estimation if you are still able to ballot at a certain distance, but nevertheless, we know which schools are most likely to require balloting.
The changes to the system involves the earlier phases, where 20 places have been taken away to be given to Phase 2C. So Phase 2C will now have at least 40 places. We do not know whether parents who missed out in the earlier phases will join Phase 2C balloting which intensifies balloting at certain schkools. Or if they will give up and just go to other schools which will then lower the intensity of competition at those schools.
In the chart below, we have the schools listed in their DPG area, sorted by the level of risk of SOME bidding. We are not using the usual colour mapping to highlight the chance of bidding <1km or >2km as we will be guessing. But we anticipate intense bidding at the lower Phase 2A bidding due to the smaller pool of vacancies.
How to read the chart
The numbers all range from 0 to 1, with 1 being the school with the most intense bidding in the last 14 years (from 2008). We have given the more recent years higher weightage. When lumping 2A(1) and 2A(2), we have given 2A(1) and higher weight of 5 before adding to 2A(2) to get the final prediction for 2A.
The numbers can be very ROUGHLY estimated as follows:
No highlight or 0.0: Unlikely to require balloting at all
<= 0.1: Likely to ballot outside of 2km
<= 0.2: Likely to ballot between 1 and 2km
> 0.3: Likely to ballot with 1km
The school with 1.0 is the one that is most likely to ballot within 1km.
For certain schools like Townsville Primary in Ang Mo Kio, the entry is highlighted for Phase 2C even when the value is 0.00 because there was some oversubscription a long time ago, but the score is very small, below 0.00. We still highlight these schools although they are highly unlikely to require balloting.