MOE has finally released the final Phase 2C results and the schools that need to ballot. A total of 91 schools have been oversubscribed although not all will require balloting for a variety of reasons. One school, Geylang Methodist, just managed to fill all its places without the need for balloting, so congratulations to those involved!
Amongst the schools that are most oversubscribed are (in descending order)
Nan Hua (671%)
South View (650%)
St Hilda’s (590%)
Princess Elizabeth (524%)
The good news is that some folks going for South View finally “woke up” and decided to go for other schools. Good for them, and hope they have managed to secure a place in Phase 2C. Although the trend is still miniscule compared to the rush of parents going for the popular schools in the last day, it is encouraging to see that some parents are actually heeding the warning to avoid balloting in those schools. Amongst schools which has the highest drop in Day 3 vs Day 2, Canberra is the highest with 27 drop outs. That’s kind of high and I’m not sure if there was some mistake here. Most other schools have less than 10 drop outs in the final day.
Other than Nan Hua, most of the other “elite” schools oversubscription rates generally follow their traditional demand.
Good luck to those going for the ballots. In any case, do prepare for Phase 2C(S) as it is the final chance for you to try to get what you want.
At the end of the 2nd day of the 2021 Phase 2C exercise, a shocking 77 schools are oversubscribed!
South View continues to “lead” as the school that is most oversubscribed at 670%. But it is not alone. Northland of Yishun is nipping at its heels at 661%. Nan Hua is at 557% while St Hilda’s is at 540%. Parents, please think rationally now, instead of being swept in by the madness of the situation. If you think that an almost 1/7 chance of getting your child into the school is a good bet, think again. Also, Phase 2C is NOT like Phase 2B when you can safely bet. You should be going for your alternate choice instead of vying for these schools, NOW.
If you look at the table, many schools are approaching 100% in their Take-Up-Rate (TUR). These are the better schools you can go for, instead of balloting for schools with an oversubscription rate greater than 500%. You can be sure that these same schools will probably face balloting in the final Phase 2CS. Get your child in now, instead of Phase 2CS.
Looking at the 2021-2020 column, you can see that a number of schools have become positive in this column. That is a bad sign, since it means there are more people interested in the school this year than last year. For example, Kuo Chuan Presbyterian of Bishan has 79 parents applying this year compared to just 50 last year, which makes a difference of 29 more applicants. That’s almost an entire class more.
Demand is definitely going to go up tomorrow, the last day of Phase 2C. Please switch to your alternative choice now, and save yourself much grief moving forward.
The first day of Phase 2C is over!
A total of 57 schools are oversubscribed. Amongst these schools, South View of Choa Chu Kang has a whopping application rate of 590%! That’s almost 6 times its available places. To put things in context, if all applicants are within 1km, it means the chance of getting in is one out of six! I really hope parents will consider this carefully and withdraw to apply for other nearby schools in the area which does not have such crazy odds.
Another thing that amazes me are the number of people, who are already registered in supposedly elite schools, withdrawing their applications at this point. Fairfield Methodist in Queenstown has 2 people withdrawing, for example, and I’m sure the 48 parents applying for its last 24 places will thank them for that!
The last thing to worry about is the 2021-2020 column in the table, which shows the difference between the current and last year’s application rates. Negative values is good, as it means demand for the school is lagging behind this year, but positive values are bad since this is the first day of registration. Angsana of Tampines has the highest positive intake of 26, but this is a good thing as it has plenty of vacancies to spare. Canberra of Sembawang has the next highest of 15, but it has entered oversubscription territory.
We have added a new column called 2021 Places in the table so that you can compare the actuals in the places remaining in each school versus last years’ applicants in 2020, although this may be inferred from the Take Up Rate (TUR) column in the table. Please compare the two columns to decide on whether it is worth the risk of going for the school.
Phase 2C is upon us, and it is necessary to remind everyone that the time for gambling is over and you should seriously consider getting your child into a school and NOT just into the most popular school that you cherish. The school might be an elite Primary school, or just meters away from your home, but if it is going to require balloting under 1km to get in, it is probably better for you to choose a further away, or less prominent, school for your child. Save yourself the nail-biting anxiety of balloting. Focus more on getting your child through his or her Primary school life as smoothly as possible.
That said, we have put up the current Take Up Rate (TUR) for each school, along with the number of applicants for the school last year in 2020. The By Cohort column shows the difference in cohort sizes in 2021 and 2020. Of course there is no guarantee that the same number of people will apply for the schools this year, but historically speaking, it is still an estimate.
Many schools are already above 90% filled, so please avoid these schools as it is a safe bet that they will probably require balloting within 1km and the child must be a Singapore citizen.
Some parents have emailed me to say there’s still another phase after 2C for them to consider. Sure, there is Phase 2CS, but at that stage, it is very difficult to execute your 2nd choice plan as everyone else is doing the same! Many of the good schools that did not require balloting in Phase 2C WILL require balloting in Phase 2CS. You might end up balloting in both 2C and 2CS! That is why it is much better for you to go for schools that will require balloting in Phase 2CS in Phase 2C instead.